Patents, R and D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return
The purpose of this paper is to present and estimate a model which allows one to use the recently computerized U.S. Patent Office's data base to identify when and where changes in inventive output have occurred. The model assumes a firm which chooses a research strategy to maximize the expected discounted value of the net cash flows from its activities, and a stock market that evaluates this expectation at different dates (it is a version of the Lucas-Prescott, 1971, investment model). Patents are taken as an indicator of the output of the firm's research laboratories. These assumptions place a set of testable restrictions on the stochastic process generating patents, R&D, and the stock market rate of return on the firm's equity (the econometric framework used is that of a restricted index, or dynamic factor-analysis model [Sargent and Sims, 1977; Geweke, 1977b]). The data contain observations on these three variables for 120 firms over an eight year period. The model fits these data quite well and the final section reports on the implications of the parameter estimates.
|Date of creation:||Oct 1981|
|Publication status:||published as Pakes, Ariel. "Patents, R&D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return: A Summaryof Some Empirical Results." R&D, Patents and Productivity, edited by Zvi Griliches, (1984).|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
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- Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
- Kenneth Arrow, 1962. "Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention," NBER Chapters,in: The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, pages 609-626 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ariel Pakes & Mark Schankerman, 1984.
"An Exploration into the Determinants of Research Intensity,"
NBER Chapters,in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 209-232
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pakes, Ariel & Schankerman, Mark, 1980. "An Exploration Into the Determinants of Research Intensity," Working Papers 80-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ariel Pakes & Mark Schankerman, 1980. "An Exploration into the Determinants of Research Intensity," NBER Working Papers 0438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Meese, Richard, 1980. "Dynamic factor demand schedules for labor and capital under rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 141-158, September.
- Richard Meese, 1980. "Dynamic factor demand schedules for labor and capital under rational expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 153, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rosenberg, Nathan, 1974. "Science, Invention and Economic Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(333), pages 90-108, March.
- Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters,in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 17-45 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zvi Griliches, 1979. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 92-116, Spring.
- Ariel Pakes & Zvi Griliches, 1980. "Patents and R and D at the Firm Level: A First Look," NBER Working Papers 0561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Comanor, William S & Scherer, Frederic M, 1969. "Patent Statistics as a Measure of Technical Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 392-398, May/June.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. "Estimation of dynamic labor demand schedules under rational expectations," Staff Report 27, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research & Committee on Economic Growth of the Social Science Research Council, 1962. "The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ62-1, October.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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