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Macroeconomic Adjustment and Foreign Trade of Centrally Planned Economies


  • John Burkett
  • Richard Portes
  • David Winter


This empirical study stresses the underlying macroeconomic forces which determine foreign trade flows in CPEs. The general specification includes a planners' demand equation for the volume of imports, a planners' supply equation for the volume of exports, and a rest-of-world demand equation for the export price level. The planners' behavioural equations include variables for activity levels, trade balance constraints, prices, and domestic excess demand. The import price is exogenous. This simultaneous equation model is estimated on annual data from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, for Czechoslovakia, the GDR, Hungary, and Poland. Maximum likelihood estimation in a nested hypothesis testing framework allows selection of restricted versions of the general model for each country. Estimated price elasticities accord with the underlying theory, and the excess demand variables perform well.

Suggested Citation

  • John Burkett & Richard Portes & David Winter, 1981. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Foreign Trade of Centrally Planned Economies," NBER Working Papers 0736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0736
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Richard Portes, 1979. "Effets de la crise sur les pays de l'Est," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 30(6), pages 1067-1114.
    2. Portes, Richard, 1979. "Internal and external balance in a centrally planned economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 325-345, December.
    3. Portes, Richard, 1981. "Macroeconomic Equilibrium and Disequilibrium in Centrally Planned Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(4), pages 559-578, October.
    4. Hendry, David F. & Srba, Frank, 1980. "Autoreg: a computer program library for dynamic econometric models with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 85-102, January.
    5. Richard Portes & David Winter, 1980. "Disequilibrium Estimates for Consumption Goods Markets in Centrally Planned Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 137-159.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Portes, 1981. "Central Planning and Monetarism: Fellow Travelers?," NBER Working Papers 0782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Richard Portes, 1979. "Effets de la crise sur les pays de l'Est," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 30(6), pages 1067-1114.
    3. Tulpule, Vivek & Kottege, Jayantha & Tie, Graeme, 1992. "Soviet grain import demand," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 147335, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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