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Sterilization and Monetary Control under Pegged Exchange Rates: Theory and Evidence

  • Michael R. Darby

In veiw of recent strong evidence that substantial sterilization of the monetary effects of reserve flows occurs, a modified monetary approach model is formulated in which central banks exercise no control over their domestic money supply despite their sterilization activities. This model is compared with a more general model in which the balance of payments and domestic money supply are both influenced by the central bank's domestic policy goals. In order for the central bank to exercise monetary control, three conditions must be met: assets are not perfect substitutes, goods are not perfect substitutes, and expected depreciation is not "too -responsive" to the balance of payments. The third condition may be met for small but not large reserve flows. Reduced form tests are derived which show for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, th Netherlands, and the United Kingdom that domestic policy goals strongly influenced quarterly changes in the domestic money supply; this strongly contradicts both the modified and standard monetary approach to the balance of payments. Thus there is a relevant "short-run" in which monetary authorities exercise monetary control. The paper concludes that the simpler monetary approach is no longer empirically tenable for analysis of quarterly data and that more general simultaneous models must be specified and tested.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0449.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0449.

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Date of creation: Feb 1980
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Publication status: published as Sterilization and Monetary Control: Concepts, Issues, and a Reduced-Form Test , Michael R. Darby. in The International Transmission of Inflation , Darby, Lothian, Gandolfi, Schwartz, and Stockman. 1983
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0449
Note: ITI IFM
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  1. Gregory C. Chow, 1966. "On the Long-Run and Short-Run Demand for Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 111.
  2. Boyer, Russel S., 1979. "Sterilization and the monetary approach to balance of payments analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 295-300, April.
  3. Michael R. Darby & Alan C. Stockman, 1980. "The Mark III International Transmission Model," NBER Working Papers 0462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Blejer, Mario I., 1979. "On causality and the monetary approach to the balance of payments : The European experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 289-296, July.
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