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The Timing of Monetary and Price Changes and the International Transmission of Inflation

In: The International Transmission of Inflation

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Listed author(s):
  • Anthony Cassese
  • James R. Lothian

Abstract

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical investigation into timing relationships between variables within and across industrialized countries. In the analysis we highlight the two polar cases of completely closed and open economies and draw some implications for timing between monetary expansion and inflation, inter-country comparisons of inflation rates and interest rates, and comparisons of central bank behavior. The Granger-causality test is applied in a bivariate fashion to these groups of variables. The main empirical results of our analysis are: (1) Domestic monetary expansion appears to lead inflation in the sense that money Granger-causes prices without feedback, contradicting an implication of the monetary approach to the balance of payments. (2) Hardly any significant timing relationship exists between domestic and foreign rates of inflation during the fixed exchange rate period, providing no evidence for a generalized "law of one price." (3) Some sterilization of official reserve inflows was successfully performed by the non-reserve central banks, except for Canada. (4) U.S. interest rates Granger-cause foreign rates, providing evidence of some international transmission via asset markets.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Michael R. Darby & James R. Lothian & Arthur E. Gandolfi & Anna J. Schwartz & Alan C. Stockman, 1983. "The International Transmission of Inflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number darb83-1, June.
    • This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 6124.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:6124
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    1. Williams, David & Goodhart, C A E & Gowland, D H, 1976. "Money, Income, and Causality: The U.K. Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 417-423, June.
    2. Gandolfi, Arthur E & Lothian, James R, 1983. "International Price Behavior and the Demand for Money," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(3), pages 295-311, July.
    3. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April.
    4. Girton, Lance & Henderson, Dale W., 1976. "Financial capital movements and central bank behavior in a two-country, short-run portfolio balance model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 33-61, January.
    5. Putnam, Bluford H & Wilford, D Sykes, 1978. "Money, Income, and Causality in the United States and the United Kingdom: A Theoretical Explanation of Different Findings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 423-427, June.
    6. Darby, Michael R, 1980. "The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments: Two Specious Assumptions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 321-326, April.
    7. Kravis, Irving B. & Lipsey, Robert E., 1978. "Price behavior in the light of balance of payments theories," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 193-246, May.
    8. Connolly, Michael B & Taylor, Dean G, 1979. "Exchange Rate Changes and Neutralization: A Test of the Monetary Approach Applied to Developed and Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 46(183), pages 281-294, August.
    9. Frenkel, Jacob A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1975. "Portfolio Equilibrium and the Balance of Payments: A Monetary Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 674-688, September.
    10. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    11. Tullio, Giuseppe, 1979. "Monetary Equilibrium and Balance-of-Payments Adjustment: An Empirical Test of the U.S. Balance of Payments, 1951-73," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 68-79, February.
    12. Blejer, Mario I, 1977. "The Short-Run Dynamics of Prices and the Balance of Payments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 419-428, June.
    13. Blejer, Mario I., 1979. "On causality and the monetary approach to the balance of payments : The European experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 289-296, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lothian, James R., 2016. "Purchasing power parity and the behavior of prices and nominal exchange rates across exchange-rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 5-21.
    2. Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1996. "Non-Traded, Traded and Aggregate Inflation In Ireland (Part 2)," Research Technical Papers 3B/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Wallace E. Huffman & James R. Lothian, 1984. "The Gold Standard and the Transmission of Business Cycles, 1833-1932," NBER Chapters,in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 455-512 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bjorn Wahlroos, 1984. "Money and Prices in a Small Economy," Discussion Papers 611, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.

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