How to deal with partially analyzed acts? A proposal
In some situations, a decision is best represented by an incompletely analyzed act : conditionally to a given event A, the consequences of the decision on sub-events are perfectly known and uncertainty becomes probabilizable, whereas the plausibility of this event itself remains vague and the decision outcome on the complementary event Ac is imprecisely known. In this framework, we study an axiomatic decision model and prove a representation theorem. Resulting decision criteria aggregate partial evaluations consisting in : i) the conditional expected utility associated with the analyzed part of the decision ; and ii) the best and worst consequences of its non-analyzed part. The representation theorem is consistent with a wide variety of decision criteria which allows for expressing various degrees of knowledge on (A, Ac) and various types of attitude towards ambiguity and uncertainty. This diversity is taken into account by specific models already existing in the literature. We take advantage of that fact and propose some particular forms of our model incorporating these models as sub-models and moreover expressing various types of beliefs concerning the relative plausibility of the analyzed and the non-analyzed events ranging from probabilities to complete ignorance that include capacities.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 01 44 07 81 00
Fax: 01 44 07 81 09
Web page: http://mse.univ-paris1.fr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Schmeidler, 1989.
"Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7662, David K. Levine.
- Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
- Cohen, Michele & Jaffray, Jean-Yves, 1980. "Rational Behavior under Complete Ignorance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1281-99, July.
- Saini, Krishan G. & Bates, Philip S., 1984. "A survey of the quantitative approaches to country risk analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-356, June.
- Wakker, Peter & Tversky, Amos, 1993. " An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 147-75, October.
- Barbera, S. & Barrett, C. R. & Pattanaik, Prasanta K., 1984. "On some axioms for ranking sets of alternatives," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 301-308, August.
- Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v04098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lucie Label)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.