Modélisation des déterminants de la mortalité des enfants et pauvreté aux Comores
Based on the demographic and health survey of the Comoros of 1996, the analysis of the determinants of child mortality arrives to three conclusions. Firstly, several parameters influence the fruitfulness of modeling the child health. On the one hand, differentiated analytical options – approaches of the survival and mortality rates having, respectively, the child and the woman as unity of analysis –, generates partially convergent results and apprehend different dimensions of child mortality. In addition, the choice of econometric models seems more important for the approach of the mortality rates than with regard to the analysis ofsurvival. With censured data, the Tobit model produces better results compared with linear orProbit models. Secondly, the analysis in principal component can constitute an adequateprocedure to build an indicator of the long_term households wealth, from informations about theassets of the households. In this respect, the study shows that the low standard of living ofthe households in terms of assets is associated with a high child mortality.Thirdly, thedeterminants of the infant and child mortality are relatively comparable. On the one hand, somecommon factors to both analytical options affect negatively the child health: (i) geographicallocalization in the rural zones and/or the islands of Anjouan and Mohéli; (ii) the low standard of living of the households in terms of assets; (iii) some community elements, in particularmorbidity, the insufficiency of vaccination and the absence of childbirth assisted by qualifiedpersons. On the other hand, characteristics of the mothers and births have an impact on theinfant and child mortality : (i) the early age of the mothers during the birth of the childrenreduces the survival of the latter; (i) the risk of death is more important for the boys thanfor the girls; (iii) low length intergenesic interval compared to the preceding birth, multiplebirths and the high rank of the births decrease the probability of reaching 1st or the 5thanniversary. Besides, according to the mortality ratio approach, the age of the mothers andtheir low level of education influence positively the rate of child mortality. But this lasteffect is not significant any more in terms of survival(Full text in French).
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