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Evidences empiriques sur la formation de l'équilibre du marché du travail : cas des pays de l'OCDE

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  • Adama Zerbo

    (GED, Université de Bordeaux)

Abstract

Ce papier s’est fixé pour objectif de réaliser les évidences empiriques du résultat de la nouvelle représentation macroéconomique du marché du travail. Selon ce cadre théorique, le profit brut réel est le facteur déterminant du mécanisme d’ajustement du marché du travail et, ainsi, de l’emploi. Ainsi, des modèles de panel de long terme et de court terme ont été implémentés sur les données des pays de l’OCDE de 2011 à 2015. Les résultats montrent l’existence de relations positives de court terme et de long terme entre l’emploi et le profit brut. Les élasticités de l’emploi par rapport au profit brut sont estimées à 0,21 pour le court terme et à 0,24 pour le long terme. Par ailleurs, ces résultats montrent qu’il existe une force de rappel à l’équilibre du marché du travail. Le coefficient de cette force de rappel est estimé à -0,66. Alors, ces tests économétriques viennent confirmer que : (i) le profit brut est le facteur déterminant de l’emploi dans le court terme ; (ii) l’équilibre de court terme du marché du travail résulte de la confrontation entre le niveau conventionnel du profit brut imposé par la nécessité de compromis entre les parties et le niveau technique du profit donnée par la courbe de profit brut ; (iii) la nature de l’équilibre du marché du travail à court terme est principalement déterminée par la dynamique des profits bruts ; (v) le niveau de l’emploi d’équilibre peut bien être inférieur à l’offre de travail et, ainsi, l’économie se trouverait dans une situation d’équilibre de sous-emploi. This paper aimed to provide empirical evidence of outcome of the new macroeconomic representation of labor market. According to this theoretical framework, real gross profit is the determining factor in the adjustment mechanism of labor market and thus of employment in short term. Therefore, long-term and short-term panel models were implemented on OECD countries data from 2011 to 2015. The results show the existence of positive short-term and long-term relations between employment and gross profit. Elasticity of employment in relation to gross profit is estimated at 0.21 for short term and 0.24 for long term. Moreover, these results show that there is a restoring force to the equilibrium of labor market. The coefficient of this restoring force is estimated at -0.66. Then, these econometric tests confirm that: (i) gross profit is the determining factor of employment in short term; (ii) equilibrium on labor market results from confrontation between the conventional level of gross profit resulting from the trade-off and the technical level of gross profit given by the gross profit curve; (iii) the nature of short-term labor market equilibrium is mainly determined by the dynamics of gross profits; (v) the level of employment at equilibrium may be lower than labor supply and thus the economy would be in an underemployment equilibriumd.(Full text in french)

Suggested Citation

  • Adama Zerbo, 2018. "Evidences empiriques sur la formation de l'équilibre du marché du travail : cas des pays de l'OCDE," Documents de travail 179, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
  • Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:179
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adama Zerbo, 2018. "Essai d'une nouvelle représentation macroéconomique du marché du travail," Documents de travail 178, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    3. Alain Trognon, 2003. "L'économétrie des panels en perspective," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 113(6), pages 727-748.
    4. Adama Zerbo, 2016. "Essai d'une théorie générale de la firme," Documents de travail 175, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    5. Adama Zerbo, 2017. "Croissance économique et chômage : les fondements de la loi d'Okun et le modèle IS-LM-LO," Documents de travail 176, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    6. Alain Pirotte, 1996. "Estimation de relations de long terme sur données de panel : nouveaux résultats," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 126(5), pages 143-161.
    7. Adama Zerbo, 2018. "La demande de travail de la théorie générale de la firme : évidences empiriques," Documents de travail 177, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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