IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mof/wpaper/ron334.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do fiscal policy news shocks affect JGB yield? Evidence from COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Takahiro Hattori

    (Corresponding author. Project Assistant Professor, University of Tokyo and Visiting Scholar, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan)

  • Motoki Katano

    (Visiting Scholar, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan)

Abstract

This is a pioneering study that investigates how fiscal news affects the yield of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB), by using intraday data. Since the Japanese government is the largest spender in the world, during the COVID-19 pandemic, this period provides the ideal situation or setting to test how fiscal news affects JGB yield. Taking advantage of the minute by minute data about fiscal news during this pandemic, we find that negative fiscal news significantly but temporarily increased JGB yield, although it is not a persistent effect. We also find that investors do care about negative news but not about the positive news. These results suggest that the JGB is considered a risk-free asset among investors, but the result also signals to the Japanese government to work on sound management of debt sustainability from a long-term perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Takahiro Hattori & Motoki Katano, 2020. "Do fiscal policy news shocks affect JGB yield? Evidence from COVID-19," Discussion papers ron334, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:mof:wpaper:ron334
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mof.go.jp/pri/research/discussion_paper/ron334.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Takero Doi & Toshihiro Ihori, 2009. "The Public Sector in Japan," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12752.
    2. Kameda, Keigo, 2014. "Budget deficits, government debt, and long-term interest rates in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 105-124.
    3. Kikuchi, Shinnosuke & Kitao, Sagiri & Mikoshiba, Minamo, 2021. "Who suffers from the COVID-19 shocks? Labor market heterogeneity and welfare consequences in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Miyakawa, Daisuke & Oikawa, Koki & Ueda, Kozo, 2021. "Firm Exit during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Government financing decisions and asset returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-352.
    6. Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2010. "Effects of Japanese macroeconomic statistic announcements on the dollar/yen exchange rate: High-resolution picture," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 334-354, September.
    7. Kitchen, John, 1996. "Domestic and international financial market responses to Federal deficit announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 239-254, April.
    8. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
    9. Michihito Ando & Chishio Furukawa & Daigo Nakata & Kazuhiko Sumiya, 2020. "Fiscal Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis in Japan: The First Six Months," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 901-926, September.
    10. Wachtel, Paul & Young, John, 1987. "Deficit Announcements and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 1007-1012, December.
    11. Quigley, Michael Regan & Porter-Hudak, Susan, 1994. "A New Approach in Analyzing the Effect of Deficit Announcements on Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 894-902, November.
    12. Tsutomu Watanabe & Yuki Omori, 2020. "Online Consumption During the COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from Japan," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 023, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    13. Tsutomu Watanabe & Yuki Omori, 2020. "Online Consumption During the COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-487, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    14. Hattori, Takahiro, 2020. "The impact of quantitative and qualitative easing on term structure: Evidence from micro-level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kameda, Keigo, 2014. "Budget deficits, government debt, and long-term interest rates in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 105-124.
    2. Biswajit Maitra, 2017. "Monetary and fiscal factors in nominal interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under a deregulated regime," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Kikuchi, Shinnosuke & Kitao, Sagiri & Mikoshiba, Minamo, 2021. "Who suffers from the COVID-19 shocks? Labor market heterogeneity and welfare consequences in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    8. Pereira, Manuel C, 2009. "A new measure of fiscal shocks based on budget forecasts and its implications," MPRA Paper 17475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty & N. R. Bhanumurthy, 2021. "Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in determining interest rate in India," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 293-318, April.
    11. Shinnosuke Kikuchi & Sagiri Kitao & Minamo Mikoshiba, 2020. "Who Suffers from the COVID-19 Shocks? Labor Market Heterogeneity and Welfare Consequences in Japan (Forthcoming in the Journal of the Japanese and the International Economies)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-490, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    12. Ms. Garima Vasishtha & Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Ms. Edda Zoli, 2006. "Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies: How Does Debt Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2006/184, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Kitchen, John, 2002. "A Note on Interest Rates and Structural Federal Budget Deficits," MPRA Paper 21069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2002.
    14. Douglas W. Elmendorf, "undated". "The Effect of Deficit-Reduction Laws on Real Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    15. John Gathergood & Fabian Gunzinger & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Edika Quispe-Torreblanca & Neil Stewart, 2020. "Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending," Papers 2012.09336, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    16. Michihito Ando & Chishio Furukawa & Daigo Nakata & Kazuhiko Sumiya, 2020. "Fiscal Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis in Japan: The First Six Months," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 901-926, September.
    17. Edda Zoli, 2005. "How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in emerging market countries?," BIS Working Papers 174, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Shoora B. Paudyal, 2013. "Do Budget Deficits Raise Interest Rates in Nepal?," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 25(1), pages 51-66, April.
    19. Michihito Ando & Masato Furuichi, 2022. "The association of COVID-19 employment shocks with suicide and safety net use: An early-stage investigation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-26, March.
    20. Maximiliano Gómez Aguirre & Ariel David Krysa, 2023. "Consumer Loans Dynamics in 2020 in Argentina: An Approach Using Error Correction Models," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(81), pages 111-158, May.
    21. Nisrine Essanoussi & Zineb Bennis Nechba, 2022. "The use of online payment in Morocco during COVID19: An analysis of the TAM model by logistic regression [L'utilisation du paiement en ligne au Maroc à l'heure de la COVID19 : Une analyse du modèle," Post-Print halshs-03705130, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget Deficit; Japanese Government Bond; Interest Rate; Fiscal News; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mof:wpaper:ron334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Policy Research Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/prigvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.