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The Effect of News on Bond Prices: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1900-1920

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  • Elmendorf, Douglas W
  • Hirschfeld, Mary L
  • Weil, David N

Abstract

The authors study the relationship of news to bond prices. They select a set of major news events based solely on their significance as judged by historians and examine the corresponding bond price movements. The variance of holding returns is higher for weeks with important news than for weeks without such news, and the probability of a very large return (in absolute value) is higher for 'news' weeks than for 'non-news' weeks. The magnitude of these differences, however, suggests that much of the variability in bond prices cannot be explained by news, though important caveats about the authors' measurement of news apply. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

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  • Elmendorf, Douglas W & Hirschfeld, Mary L & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Effect of News on Bond Prices: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1900-1920," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 341-344, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:78:y:1996:i:2:p:341-44
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    1. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Campbell, Gareth & Quinn, William & Turner, John D. & Ye, Qing, 2015. "What moved share prices in the nineteenth-century London stock market?," QUCEH Working Paper Series 15-06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    2. Hanna, Alan J. & Turner, John D. & Walker, Clive B., 2017. "News media and investor sentiment over the long run," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2017-06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    3. repec:bla:ehsrev:v:71:y:2018:i:1:p:157-189 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Amelie Brune & Thorsten Hens & Marc Rieger & Mei Wang, 2015. "The war puzzle: contradictory effects of international conflicts on stock markets," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(1), pages 1-21, March.
    5. repec:bla:ehsrev:v:71:y:2018:i:2:p:480-505 is not listed on IDEAS

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