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Overconfident but yet well-calibrated and underconfident : a research not on judgmental miscalibration and flawed self-assessment

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  • Andersson, Patric

Abstract

The present paper addresses the question whether overconfidence is an individually stable phenomenon. A within-subjects design was used to investigate whether judgmental miscalibration also reflects tendency to make flawed selfassessments. While the former notion refers to the tendency of individuals to put unrealistic beliefs in their judgments, the latter concerns the tendency of individuals to make inaccurate evaluations of their abilities and performance. On the whole, the paper finds little support that those two tendencies should be related. Depending on the employed measurement, the participants were found to be simultaneously overconfident, well-calibrated, and underconfident.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Patric, 2005. "Overconfident but yet well-calibrated and underconfident : a research not on judgmental miscalibration and flawed self-assessment," Papers 05-37, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2624
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    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2624/1/dp05_37.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence of Professionals and Lay Men: Individual Differences Within and Between Tasks?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-25, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    5. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005. "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312.
    6. Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Academic performance ; calibration ; education ; overconfidence ; self-assessment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A20 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - General
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General

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