IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Analysing currency risk premia in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia

  • András Rezessy


    (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission)

The paper estimates currency risk premia for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Three different approaches are applied: a constant premium approach based on rational expectations, while time-varying premia are estimated with a method using financial market analysts’ surveys and also with a Kalman filter technique. A novelty in this paper is a crosscheck based on the three different approaches applied and also making use of implied and historical volatilities. The results highlight the importance of such a crosscheck: in the case of the Czech and the Slovak koruna and the Polish zloty this exercise reveals severe problems with the results, which otherwise would not have been discovered. On the other hand, the estimation methods produce convincing results for the Hungarian forint. The estimated Hungarian premium series reflect the major events that intuitively may have shaped currency risk in the country. A possible reason for these findings is a high signal-to-noise ratio in the case of Hungary where the risk premium has been large and exhibited substantial shifts through time. Finally, the strong comovement of the premium series obtained with the Kalman-filter and the survey data for the Hungarian forint also indicates that the survey expectations are largely in line with both the riskpremium- extended UIP and the rational expectations hypothesis, which is theoretically important as the UIP relates exchange rate expectations to the interest rate differential.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2010/7.

in new window

Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2010/7
Contact details of provider: Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2010/7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maja Bajcsy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.