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A Look at the main channels of Potential Impact of Brexit on the Portuguese Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Guida Nogueira

    (Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia)

  • Paulo Inácio

    (Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia)

Abstract

On June, 2016 the UK decided to leave the EU. The departure date was originally scheduled for March 29, 2019 but the process reached an impasse as the withdrawal agreement, that was negotiated with the European Union, failed to get parliamentary approval. The EU agreed to offer the UK a flexible extension of the Brexit deadline until October 31, but the risk of a no-deal scenario still exists. Since there is no precedent of a Member State withdrawing from the European Union, the implications of Brexit for the EU countries are still highly uncertain. However, countries and industries that have deep economic ties, in terms of international integration, to the UK are the most vulnerable to this departure. In this work we will use trade in value added statistics from OECD-WTO TiVA database and related indicators to depict how exposed and thus vulnerable is Portugal and its sectors to the UK market, delivering a useful contribute for assessing potential impacts of Brexit on the Portuguese Economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Guida Nogueira & Paulo Inácio, 2019. "A Look at the main channels of Potential Impact of Brexit on the Portuguese Economy," GEE Papers 0120, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised May 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0120
    as

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    File URL: https://www.gee.gov.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_120.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portugal; Trade in Value Added; Brexit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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