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The Cobweb, Borrowing and Financial Crises

  • P Commendatore
  • M Currie

Studies of non-linear cobweb models have failed to address a fundamental issue: whether the complex dynamical behavior displayed by such models is consistent with the survival of producers. This paper shows that where borrowing is unconstrained, as is implicitly assumed in standard cobweb models, borrowing results in financial crises. Incorporating constraints on borrowing is needed to salvage cobweb models. Industry performance (in terms both of profitability and of the incidence of bankruptcies) is highly sensitive to the nature of such credit restrictions.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/economics/discussionpapers/EDP-0503.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics, The University of Manchester in its series The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series with number 0503.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:0503
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/

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  1. Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
  2. Day, Richard H & Morley, Samuel A & Smith, Kenneth R, 1974. "Myopic Optimizing and Rules of Thumb in a Micro-Model of Industrial Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(1), pages 11-23, March.
  3. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  4. Walker, David A., 1997. "A behavioral model of bank asset management," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 413-431, March.
  5. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Onozaki, Tamotsu & Sieg, Gernot & Yokoo, Masanori, 2000. "Complex dynamics in a cobweb model with adaptive production adjustment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 101-115, February.
  7. Hommes, Cars H., 1991. "Adaptive learning and roads to chaos : The case of the cobweb," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 127-132, June.
  8. Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
  9. Huang, Weihong, 1995. "Caution implies profit," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-277, July.
  10. Gallas, Jason A. C. & Nusse, Helena E., 1996. "Periodicity versus chaos in the dynamics of cobweb models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 447-464, May.
  11. Chiarella, Carl, 1988. "The cobweb model: Its instability and the onset of chaos," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 377-384, October.
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