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Décomposition des effets des politiques économiques sur l'évolution de la pauvreté au Cameroun: une analyse en équilibre général micro-simulé avec double calibration

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  • Christian Arnault Émini
  • Dorine Kanmi Feunou

Abstract

Ce papier décompose la contribution des politiques économiques majeures menées au Cameroun, dans la réduction de la pauvreté entre 1993 et 2001. Pour cela, un modèle de microsimulation en équilibre général calculable, avec double calibration a été utilisé. Il en résulte que les changements technologiques survenus entre 1993 et 2001 expliquent à eux seuls 31% de la réduction de la proportion de pauvres (FGT0) au niveau national, et 45% de la croissance du PIB, avec une tendance à tirer le niveau des prix à la consommation vers le bas. Les changements technologiques renvoient ici aux variations des valeurs des paramètres d'échelle connus dans les fonctions de production et de différenciation des produits par origine ou par destination. Les contributions de la dévaluation de 1994 du Franc CFA, de la réhabilitation des infrastructures, et de la réforme fiscale de 1994, représentent respectivement 1%, 11% et 3% dans la croissance du PIB; et 65%, 0% et 11% dans la hausse des prix à la consommation; 2%, 9% et -4% dans la réduction de l'indice FGT0.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Arnault Émini & Dorine Kanmi Feunou, 2008. "Décomposition des effets des politiques économiques sur l'évolution de la pauvreté au Cameroun: une analyse en équilibre général micro-simulé avec double calibration," Working Papers MPIA 2008-18, PEP-MPIA.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2008-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    2. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    3. Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2000. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar," TMD discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Lisandro Abrego & John Whalley, 1999. "The Choice of Structural Model in Trade-Wages Decompositions," NBER Working Papers 7312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Abrego, Lisandro & Whalley, John, 2000. "The Choice of Structural Model in Trade-Wages Decompositions," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 462-477, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ngouhouo, Ibrahim & Tchoffo, Rodrigue & Younchawou, Ngouwouo & Tafakeu, Marie-Josée, 2021. "Opening of alcoholic drink establishments during the Coronavirus period in Cameroon: scope and economic consequences," MPRA Paper 108630, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
    2. Alia, Didier & Ndjana, Willy & Nghogue, Erith, 2009. "Construction d'un MEGC pour l'évaluation de l'impact de la politique économique au Cameroun sur le secteur informel et la pauvreté [Evaluation of the effects of economic policies on informal sector," MPRA Paper 30339, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Double calibration; décomposition d'impacts; microsimulation; dévaluation; modèles EGC; changements technologiques; réformes fiscales et douanières; infrastructures de base;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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