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Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Latvia

  • Aleksejs Melihovs

    (Bank of Latvia)

  • Anna Zasova

    (Bank of Latvia)

The current paper aims at estimating the formation mechanism of business inflation expectations to find out how the latter affect the inflation dynamics. To attain this goal, the authors estimated the traditional Phillips curve, new Keynesian Phillips curve and hybrid Phillips curve. The results obtained testify to a better explanatory power to describe the dynamics of Latvia's core inflation of the hybrid Phillips curve compared with the traditional and new Keynesian Phillips curves. Moreover, the outcomes of the research indicate that companies in Latvia adjust their output prices quite frequently implying that the pass-through of changes in inflation expectations to actual prices is quite prompt.

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Paper provided by Latvijas Banka in its series Working Papers with number 2007/03.

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Date of creation: 17 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200703
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  1. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 38, Bank of Greece.
  2. Júlia Lendvai, 2005. "Hungarian Inflation Dynamics," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/46, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  3. Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Virén, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Macroeconomics 0508031, EconWPA.
  5. Konstantins Benkovskis & Daina Paula, 2007. "Inflation Expectations in Latvia: Consumer Survey Based Results," Working Papers 2007/01, Latvijas Banka.
  6. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Rumler, Fabio, 2005. "Estimates of the open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve for euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0496, European Central Bank.
  8. Dhyne, Emmanuel & Álvarez, Luis J. & Le Bihan, Hervé & Veronese, Giovanni & Dias, Daniel & Hoffmann, Johannes & Jonker, Nicole & Lünnemann, Patrick & Rumler, Fabio & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylized facts from individual consumer price data," Working Paper Series 0524, European Central Bank.
  9. Tillmann, Peter, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. David Hargreaves & Hannah Kite & Bernard Hodgetts, 2006. "Modelling New Zealand inflation in a Phillips curve," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, September.
  11. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  12. Llaudes, Ricardo, 2005. "The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment," Working Paper Series 0441, European Central Bank.
  13. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050 Elsevier.
  14. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & David López-Salido, 2005. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0520, Banco de Espa�a.
  15. John M. Roberts, 2001. "How well does the New Keynesian sticky-price model fit the data?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Maritta Paloviita, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 847-860, November.
  17. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2006. "A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland," Working Papers 2006-09, Swiss National Bank.
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