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Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Latvia

Listed author(s):
  • Aleksejs Melihovs

    (Bank of Latvia)

  • Anna Zasova

    (Bank of Latvia)

The current paper aims at estimating the formation mechanism of business inflation expectations to find out how the latter affect the inflation dynamics. To attain this goal, the authors estimated the traditional Phillips curve, new Keynesian Phillips curve and hybrid Phillips curve. The results obtained testify to a better explanatory power to describe the dynamics of Latvia's core inflation of the hybrid Phillips curve compared with the traditional and new Keynesian Phillips curves. Moreover, the outcomes of the research indicate that companies in Latvia adjust their output prices quite frequently implying that the pass-through of changes in inflation expectations to actual prices is quite prompt.

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Paper provided by Latvijas Banka in its series Working Papers with number 2007/03.

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Date of creation: 17 Jul 2007
Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200703
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  1. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050 Elsevier.
  2. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Working Paper Research 74, National Bank of Belgium.
  3. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(IV), pages 425-448, December.
  4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
  5. Konstantins Benkovskis & Daina Paula, 2007. "Inflation Expectations in Latvia: Consumer Survey Based Results," Working Papers 2007/01, Latvijas Banka.
  6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
  7. Júlia Lendvai, 2005. "Hungarian Inflation Dynamics," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/46, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  8. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 463-473, December.
  9. David Hargreaves & Hannah Kite & Bernard Hodgetts, 2006. "Modelling New Zealand inflation in a Phillips curve," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, September.
  10. Roberts John M., 2005. "How Well Does the New Keynesian Sticky-Price Model Fit the Data?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, September.
  11. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  12. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
  13. Rumler, Fabio, 2005. "Estimates of the open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve for euro area countries," Working Paper Series 496, European Central Bank.
  14. Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Llaudes, Ricardo, 2005. "The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment," Working Paper Series 441, European Central Bank.
  16. Fabio Rumler, 2007. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 427-451, September.
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