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A preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies

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  • Nicola Ranger
  • Swenja Surminski

Abstract

Over the past decade, growth in insurance demand in the BRICS economies has been a key driver of global non-life premium growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth over the coming decade. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030. We suggest five pathways of influence: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising incomes. The scale of the impacts and their direction depend to some extent on (re)insurer responses to the challenges of climate change. We outline five actions that could pave the way for future opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Ranger & Swenja Surminski, 2011. "A preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies," GRI Working Papers 63, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    • Handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp63
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    Cited by:

    1. Swenja Surminski & Andrew Williamson, 2012. "Policy indexes � what do they tell us and what are their applications? The case of climate policy and business planning in emerging markets," GRI Working Papers 88, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    2. Surminski, Swenja, 2014. "The role of insurance in reducing direct risk: the case of flood insurance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60764, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Nicola Ranger & Andrew Williamson, 2011. "Forecasting non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies: a preliminary evaluation of the impacts of income and climate change," GRI Working Papers 61, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

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