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The Rise and Fall of Export-led Growth

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  • Thomas I. Palley

Abstract

This paper traces the rise of export-led growth as a development paradigm and argues that it is exhausted owing to changed conditions in emerging market (EM) and developed economies. The global economy needs a recalibration that facilitates a new paradigm of domestic demand-led growth. Globalization has so diversified global economic activity that no country or region can act as the lone locomotive of global growth. Political reasoning suggests that EM countries are not likely to abandon export-led growth, nor will the international community implement the international arrangements needed for successful domestic demand-led growth. Consequently, the global economy likely faces asymmetric stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas I. Palley, 2011. "The Rise and Fall of Export-led Growth," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_675, Levy Economics Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_675
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    File URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_675.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert A. Blecker & Arslan Razmi, 2010. "Export-led Growth, Real Exchange Rates and the Fallacy of Composition," Chapters,in: Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 19 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Sarkar, Prabirjit & Singer, H. W., 1991. "Manufactured exports of developing countries and their terms of trade since 1965," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 333-340, April.
    3. Brewer, Anthony, 1985. "Trade with fixed real wages and mobile capital," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 177-186, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Javed, Zanib & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Impact of Export Composition on Economic Growth in South Asia," MPRA Paper 71519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Thomas I. Palley, 2013. "Global imbalances and the Revised Bretton Woods hypothesis: Wrong before the crisis and wrong after," IMK Working Paper 108-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Alimi, Santos R. & Muse, Bernard O., 2012. "Export - led growth or growth – driven exports? Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 53468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lee, GaSeul & Lim, Song Soo, 2015. "FTA effects on agricultural trade with matching approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 9, pages 1-26.
    6. repec:jso:coejbm:v:4:y:2016:i:3:p:140-150 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Panda, Swayamsiddha, 2014. "Modeling India's External Sector: Review and Some Empirics," Working Papers 14/138, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led Growth; Domestic Demand-led Growth; Economic Development; Stagnation;

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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