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The Rise and Fall of Export-led Growth

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  • Thomas I. Palley

Abstract

This paper traces the rise of export-led growth as a development paradigm and argues that it is exhausted owing to changed conditions in emerging market (EM) and developed economies. The global economy needs a recalibration that facilitates a new paradigm of domestic demand-led growth. Globalization has so diversified global economic activity that no country or region can act as the lone locomotive of global growth. Political reasoning suggests that EM countries are not likely to abandon export-led growth, nor will the international community implement the international arrangements needed for successful domestic demand-led growth. Consequently, the global economy likely faces asymmetric stagnation.

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  • Thomas I. Palley, 2011. "The Rise and Fall of Export-led Growth," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_675, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_675
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert A. Blecker & Arslan Razmi, 2010. "Export-led Growth, Real Exchange Rates and the Fallacy of Composition," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 19, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hany H. MAKHLOUF, 2016. "The Rewards and Challenges of Export-Led Strategies," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 440-445, September.
    2. Ambreen FATEMAH & Abdul QAYYUM, 2018. "Modeling the impact of exports on the economic growth of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 56-64, March.
    3. Javed, Zanib & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Impact of Export Composition on Economic Growth in South Asia," MPRA Paper 71519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Davit Belkania, 2020. "Export Structure and Economic Performance in Transition Economies," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 476-490.
    5. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    6. Thomas I. Palley, 2013. "Global imbalances and the Revised Bretton Woods hypothesis: Wrong before the crisis and wrong after," IMK Working Paper 108-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Alimi, Santos R. & Muse, Bernard O., 2012. "Export - led growth or growth – driven exports? Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 53468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Solikin M. Juhro, 2014. "THE ROLE OF THE CENTRAL BANK IN PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE GROWTH: Perspectives on the Implementation of Flexible ITF in Indonesia," Working Papers WP/17/2014, Bank Indonesia.
    9. Sigit Setiawan, 2017. "Middle Income Trap and Infrastructure issues In Indonesia: A Strategic Perspective," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 42-48.
    10. N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sukanya Bose & Swayamsiddha Panda, 2014. "Modelling India’s External Sector: Review and Some Empirics," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 457-493, November.
    11. Lee, GaSeul & Lim, Song Soo, 2015. "FTA effects on agricultural trade with matching approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-26.
    12. repec:grt:wpegrt:2014-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sule L. Aker & Prof. Ahmet Aker, 2016. "Export-led Growth Revisited in Emerging Economies," Journal of Business & Management (COES&RJ-JBM), , vol. 4(3), pages 140-150, July.
    14. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Panda, Swayamsiddha, 2014. "Modeling India's External Sector: Review and Some Empirics," Working Papers 14/138, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    15. Chengete Chakamera & Noleen M. Pisa, 2021. "Associations Between Logistics and Economic Growth in Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(3), pages 417-438, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led Growth; Domestic Demand-led Growth; Economic Development; Stagnation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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