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The Rise and Fall of Export-led Growth

  • Thomas I. Palley

This paper traces the rise of export-led growth as a development paradigm and argues that it is exhausted owing to changed conditions in emerging market (EM) and developed economies. The global economy needs a recalibration that facilitates a new paradigm of domestic demand-led growth. Globalization has so diversified global economic activity that no country or region can act as the lone locomotive of global growth. Political reasoning suggests that EM countries are not likely to abandon export-led growth, nor will the international community implement the international arrangements needed for successful domestic demand-led growth. Consequently, the global economy likely faces asymmetric stagnation.

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File URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_675.pdf
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Paper provided by Levy Economics Institute in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_675.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_675
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.levyinstitute.org

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  1. Robert A. Blecker & Arslan Razmi, 2009. "Export-led growth, real exchange rates and the fallacy of composition," Working Papers 2009-22, American University, Department of Economics.
  2. Sarkar, Prabirjit & Singer, H. W., 1991. "Manufactured exports of developing countries and their terms of trade since 1965," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 333-340, April.
  3. Brewer, Anthony, 1985. "Trade with fixed real wages and mobile capital," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 177-186, February.
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