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How Far From the Euro Area? Measuring Convergence of Inflation Rates in Eastern Europe

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  • Bettina Becker
  • Stephen G. Hall

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Abstract

We present a common factor framework of convergence which we implement using principal components analysis. We apply this technique to a dataset of monthly inflation rates of EMU and the Eastern European New Member Countries (NMC) over 1996-2007. In the earlier years, the NMC rates moved independently from an average of the three best performing countries over the past twelve months, while they moved somewhat closer in line with them in the later years. Looking at the sample of the EMU and NMC countries as a whole, there is evidence of a formation of convergence clubs across the two groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Bettina Becker & Stephen G. Hall, 2009. "How Far From the Euro Area? Measuring Convergence of Inflation Rates in Eastern Europe," Discussion Papers in Economics 09/1, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:09/1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    2. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
      • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
      • Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Hall, Stephen G & Robertson D & Wickens, M R, 1997. "Measuring Economic Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 131-143, April.
    4. Volker Nitsch, 2004. "Have a Break, Have a ... National Currency: When Do Monetary Unions Fall Apart?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1113, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. T. Anderson, 1963. "The use of factor analysis in the statistical analysis of multiple time series," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, March.
    6. Bettina Becker & Stephen G. Hall, 2009. "A new look at economic convergence in Europe: a common factor approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 85-97.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2011. "Capital market imperfections and the theory of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1659-1675.
    2. Hiranya Nath & Kiril Tochkov, 2011. "Relative Inflation in the EU Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 201105, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
    3. Arestis, Philip & Chortareas, Georgios & Magkonis, Georgios & Moschos, Demetrios, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation convergence: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 285-295.
    4. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kiril Tochkov, 2013. "The Distribution Dynamics of Income in Central and Eastern Europe relative to the EU: A Nonparametric Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1063, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    5. Hiranya Nath & Kiril Tochkov, 2013. "Relative inflation dynamics in the new EU member countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, August.
    6. Robert Garnett & Lisa Vanderlinden, 2011. "Reflexive Pedagogy: Disciplinary Idioms as Resources for Teaching," Working Papers 201106, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
    7. Sandeep Mazumder, 2014. "European Monetary Union and the Cost of Disinflation," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(2), pages 1-20, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Convergence; inflation rates; European Monetary Union; principal components analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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