IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ldr/wpaper/18.html

Schooling as a Lottery: Racial Differences in School Advancement in Urban South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • David Lam

    (Economics Department, University of Michigan)

  • Cally Ardington

    (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape TownAuthor-Email:)

  • Murray Leibbrandt

    (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town)

Abstract

This paper develops a stochastic model of grade repetition to analyze the large racial differences in progress through secondary school in South Africa. The model predicts that a larger stochastic component in the link between learning and measured performance will generate higher enrollment, higher failure rates, and a weaker link between ability and grade progression. Using recently collected longitudinal data we find that progress through secondary school is strongly associated with scores on a baseline literacy and numeracy test. In grades 8-11 the effect of these scores on grade progression is much stronger for white and coloured students than for African students, while there is no racial difference in the impact of the scores on passing the nationally standardized grade 12 matriculation exam. The results provide strong support for our model, suggesting that grade progression in African schools is poorly linked to actual ability and learning. The results point to the importance of considering the stochastic component of grade repetition in analyzing school systems with high failure rates.

Suggested Citation

  • David Lam & Cally Ardington & Murray Leibbrandt, 2007. "Schooling as a Lottery: Racial Differences in School Advancement in Urban South Africa," SALDRU Working Papers 18, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    • Handle: RePEc:ldr:wpaper:18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://opensaldru.uct.ac.za/bitstream/handle/11090/36/2008_18.pdf?sequence=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2005. "Race, equity, and public schools in post-Apartheid South Africa: Equal opportunity for all kids," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 213-233, April.
    2. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 1999. "School Inputs and Educational Outcomes in South Africa," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 1047-1084.
    3. Haroon Bhorat & Morne Oosthuizen, 2009. "Determinants of Grade 12 Pass Rates in the Post-Apartheid South African Schooling System," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(4), pages 634-666, August.
    4. Hanushek, Eric A., 2006. "School Resources," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & F. Welch (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 865-908, Elsevier.
    5. Erik Hanushek & F. Welch (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of the Economics of Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, June.
    6. Erik Hanushek & F. Welch (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of the Economics of Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2, June.
    7. Selod, Harris & Zenou, Yves, 2003. "Private versus public schools in post-Apartheid South African cities: theory and policy implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 351-394, August.
    8. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 2001. "The Dynamics of Educational Attainment for Black, Hispanic, and White Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 455-499, June.
    9. Servaas van der Berg & Megan Louw, 2007. "Lessons learnt from SACMEQII: South African student performance in regional context," Working Papers 16/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    10. Gomes-Neto, Joao Batista & Hanushek, Eric A, 1994. "Causes and Consequences of Grade Repetition: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(1), pages 117-148, October.
    11. Jacoby, Hanan G, 1994. "Borrowing Constraints and Progress through School: Evidence from Peru," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 151-160, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lam, David & Ardington, Cally & Branson, Nicola & Leibbrandt, Murray, 2013. "Credit constraints and the racial gap in post-secondary education in South Africa," SALDRU Working Papers 111, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    2. Lofstrom, Magnus, 2007. "Why Are Hispanic and African-American Dropout Rates So High?," IZA Discussion Papers 3265, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Stephan Litschig, 2008. "Financing local development: Quasi-experimental evidence from municipalities in Brazil, 1980-1991," Economics Working Papers 1142, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2012.
    4. Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2011. "School quality, clustering and government subsidy in post-apartheid South Africa," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 146-156, February.
    5. Manzi, Jorge & San Martin, Ernesto & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2010. "School System Evaluation By Value-Added Analysis under Endogeneity," IDEI Working Papers 631, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    6. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Chow, Kenneth & Yiu, Matthew & Tam, Dickson, 2010. "House Market in Chinese Cities: Dynamic Modeling, In-Sampling Fitting and Out-of-Sample Forecasting," MPRA Paper 27367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nadir Altinok & Geeta Kingdon, 2009. "New Evidence on Class Size Effects: A Pupil Fixed Effects Approach," Post-Print halshs-00417229, HAL.
    8. Eric A. Hanushek & Marc Piopiunik & Simon Wiederhold, 2019. "The Value of Smarter Teachers: International Evidence on Teacher Cognitive Skills and Student Performance," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(4), pages 857-899.
    9. Ese Urhie, 2014. "Public Education Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Approach," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(6), pages 370-382.
    10. Humlum, Maria Knoth & Smith, Nina, 2015. "Long-term effects of school size on students’ outcomes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 28-43.
    11. Kenneth K. Chow & Matthew S. Yiu & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Dickson C. Tam, 2008. "Does the DiPasquale-Wheaton Model Explain the House Price Dynamics in China Cities?," Working Papers 212008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. Leigh, Andrew, 2012. "Teacher pay and teacher aptitude," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 41-53.
    13. Cardak, Buly A. & Vecci, Joe, 2013. "Catholic school effectiveness in Australia: A reassessment using selection on observed and unobserved variables," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 34-45.
    14. Francesconi, Marco & Heckman, James J, 2015. "Symposium on Child Development and Parental Investment: Introduction," Economics Discussion Papers 16868, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    15. Miquel Pellicer & Patrizio Piraino, 2019. "The Effect of Nonpersonnel Resources on Educational Outcomes: Evidence from South Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 907-934.
    16. Cho, Hyunkuk & Glewwe, Paul & Whitler, Melissa, 2012. "Do reductions in class size raise students’ test scores? Evidence from population variation in Minnesota's elementary schools," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 77-95.
    17. Ruijs, Nienke, 2017. "The impact of special needs students on classmate performance," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 15-31.
    18. Díaz Serrano, Lluís & Meix Llop, Enric, 2012. "Do Fiscal and Political Decentralization Raise Students’ Performance? A Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers 2072/203156, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    19. Agüero, Jorge M. & Balcázar, Carlos Felipe & Maldonado, Stanislao & Ñopo, Hugo, 2021. "The value of redistribution: Natural resources and the formation of human capital under weak institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    20. O'Gorman, Melanie, 2010. "Racial earnings inequality in South Africa: An assessment of policy options," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 703-718, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ldr:wpaper:18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alison Siljeur (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sauctza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.