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Timeless perspective vs discretionary policymaking when the degree of inflation persistence is unknown

  • Juan Paez-Farrell

    ()

    (Dept of Economics, Loughborough University)

It is often assumed that monetary policy in forward looking models yields higher welfare, measured in terms of the unconditional loss, when it operates under the timeless perspective than under discretion. This paper consider the robustness of such a result in a New Keynesian model when the degree of intrinsic inflation persistence is misperceived by the policymaker. It finds that for reasonable parameter values discretion can be superior to the timeless perspective. The reason for this stems from the fact that the timeless perspective policy varies more with the degree of inflation persistence than does the discretionary policy.

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File URL: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/RePEc/lbo/lbowps/tp_discretion_lboro.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2009_14.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision: Sep 2009
Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2009_14
Contact details of provider: Postal: Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU
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Fax: +44 (0) 1509 223910
Web page: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/research/economics/index.html

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  1. Blake, Andrew P. & Kapetanios, George, 2000. "A radial basis function artificial neural network test for ARCH," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 15-23, October.
  2. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December.
  3. Richard Dennis, 2008. "Timeless perspective policymaking: When is discretion superior?," Working Paper Series 2008-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
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  8. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
  9. Christian Jensen & Bennett C. McCallum, 2002. "The Non-Optimality of Proposed Monetary Policy Rules Under Timeless-Perspective Commitment," NBER Working Papers 8882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-50, August.
  11. Walsh, Carl E., 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt84g1q1g6, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  12. Dennis, Richard, 2007. "Optimal Policy In Rational Expectations Models: New Solution Algorithms," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 31-55, February.
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
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