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Sectoral Exchange Rate Pass-through: A Tale of Two Policy Regimes in India

This paper uses panel data to analyse the extent to which the prices of India’s imports and exports in nine product groups react to exchange rate changes before (1980-90) and after (1991-2001) a change in policy that included the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime and an acceleration of trade liberalisation. It finds that for all the nine groups of Indian industries the null hypothesis of complete pass-through from exchange rate changes into import prices cannot be rejected. On the contrary, the results suggest that Indian exporters appear to have to some degree passed through exchange rate changes into foreign currency export prices in three industry groups in the 1980s and in six groups of industries in the 1990s. The increase in the number of sectors exhibiting some degree of pass-through in the 1990s, relative to the 1980s, may be partly attributable to the elimination of currency and trade controls. Whilst the pass-through into import prices does not exhibit a structural break around 1991, a Chow test revealed the existence of such structural break in pass-through into export prices. The pass-through to import prices seems to be exogenous (determined by external factors), but the pass-through to export prices appears to be endogenous (driven by internal factors, mostly trade and exchange rate policies).

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2004_12.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision: Mar 2004
Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2004_12
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  1. Knetter, Michael M., 1994. "Is export price adjustment asymmetric?: evaluating the market share and marketing bottlenecks hypotheses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 55-70, February.
  2. Koch, Paul D. & Rosensweig, Jeffrey A., 1992. "The dollar and the U.S. terms of trade," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 467-486.
  3. Tange, Toshiko, 1997. "Exchange rates and export prices of Japanese manufacturing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 195-206, April.
  4. Jakob Madsen, 1998. "Errors-in-variables, supply side effects, and price elasticities in foreign trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 612-637, December.
  5. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Adjustment costs and pricing-to-market theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 1-30, February.
  6. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
  7. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
  8. Dominique Gross & Nicolas Schmitt, 1996. "Exchange rate pass-through and rivalry in the Swiss automobile market," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 278-303, September.
  9. Jayant Menon, 1992. "Exchange rates and prices of Australian manufactured exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(4), pages 695-710, December.
  10. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
  11. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March.
  12. Yang, Jiawen, 1995. "Exchange rate pass-through in the U.S. market: A cross-country and cross-product investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 353-371.
  13. Jaewoo Lee, 1997. "The Response Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Market Concentration In A Small Economy: The Evidence From Korea," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 142-145, February.
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