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Sind unsere gesamtwirtschaftlichen Probleme ueberhaupt loesbar?

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  • Jochen Hartwig

Abstract

The paper draws on Baumol's (1967) model of "unbalanced growth" to show that pressing economic problems of mature economies such as declining growth rates of real GDP, an increasing government share in GDP and the "cost explosion" in health care can readily be explained - yet they cannot be finally resolved. Swiss economic data are used to verify that the economic developments Baumol's model predicts are indeed underway. Some policy as well as politico-economic conclusions are drawn from these insights.

Suggested Citation

  • Jochen Hartwig, 2005. "Sind unsere gesamtwirtschaftlichen Probleme ueberhaupt loesbar?," KOF Working papers 05-112, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:05-112
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005104863
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oulton, Nicholas, 2001. "Must the Growth Rate Decline? Baumol's Unbalanced Growth Revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 605-627, October.
    2. Jack E. Triplett & Barry P. Bosworth, 2003. "Productivity measurement issues in services industries: "Baumol's disease" has been cured," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 23-33.
    3. Jochen Hartwig, 2005. "Messprobleme bei der Ermittlung des Wachstums der Arbeitsproduktivität - dargestellt anhand eines Vergleichs der Schweiz mit den USA," KOF Working papers 05-100, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    4. Baumol, William J, 1972. "Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 150-150, March.
    5. Jochen Hartwig, 2005. "On Misusing National Accounts Data for Governance Purposes," KOF Working papers 05-101, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Nell,Edward J., 1998. "The General Theory of Transformational Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521590068, March.
    7. Kander, Astrid, 2005. "Baumol's disease and dematerialization of the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 119-130, October.
    8. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 281-281.
    9. Anita Wölfl, 2003. "Productivity Growth in Service Industries: An Assessment of Recent Patterns and the Role of Measurement," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2003/7, OECD Publishing.
    10. Jochen Hartwig & Bernd Schips, 2004. "Verzerrungen von Konsumentenpreisindizes und ihr Einfluss auf das "reale" Wirtschaftswachstum - dargestellt am Beispiel der USA," KOF Working papers 04-94, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    11. Joseph P. Newhouse, 2001. "Medical Care Price Indices: Problems and Opportunities / The Chung-Hua Lectures," NBER Working Papers 8168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Yngve Abrahamsen & Roland Aeppli & Erdal Atukeren & Michael Graff & Christian Müller & Bernd Schips, 2005. "The Swiss Disease: Facts and Artefacts, A Reply to Kehoe and Prescott," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 749-758, July.
    13. Mark Setterfield, 2003. "Supply and Demand in the Theory of Long-run Growth: Introduction to a symposium on demand-led growth," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 23-32.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hartwig, Jochen, 2008. "What drives health care expenditure?--Baumol's model of 'unbalanced growth' revisited," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 603-623, May.
    2. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:93-101 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:2:p:45-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:4:p:45-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:3:p:1-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:3:p:129-137 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:2:p:1-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:4:p:31-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:kof:anskof:v:11:y:2017:i:1:p:89-102 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:1-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jochen Hartwig, 2007. "Ist die «Baumol’sche Krankheit» geheilt?," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 1(4), pages 23-31, December.
    12. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:4:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:75-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Colombier, Carsten, 2012. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Does Baumol's cost disease loom large?," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 12-5, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    15. repec:kof:anskof:v:11:y:2017:i:1:p:77-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:2:p:33-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:kof:anskof:v:10:y:2016:i:3:p:111-128 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Jochen Kurt Hartwig, 2010. "Baumol's Diseases," KOF Working papers 10-250, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    19. repec:kof:anskof:v:11:y:2017:i:1:p:1-74 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unbalanced growth; Rise in government share of GDP; Health care cost explosion; Declining GDP growth rates; Switzerland;

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