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Sind unsere gesamtwirtschaftlichen Probleme überhaupt lösbar?

The paper draws on Baumol’s (1967) model of «unbalanced growth» to show that pressing economic problems of mature economies such as declining growth rates of real GDP, an increasing government share in GDP and the «cost explosion» in health care can readily be explained – yet they cannot be finally resolved. Swiss economic data are used to verify that the economic developments Baumol’s model predicts are indeed underway. Some policy as well as politico-economic conclusions are drawn from these insights.

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File URL: http://www.kof.ethz.ch/publications/science/pdf/wp_112.pdf
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Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 05-112.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:05-112
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  1. Yngve Abrahamsen & Roland Aeppli & Erdal Atukeren & Michael Graff & Christian Müller & Bernd Ships, 2005. "The Swiss Disease: Facts and Artefacts, A Reply to Kehoe and Prescott," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 749-758, July.
  2. Anita Wölfl, 2003. "Productivity Growth in Service Industries: An Assessment of Recent Patterns and the Role of Measurement," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2003/7, OECD Publishing.
  3. Kander, Astrid, 2005. "Baumol's disease and dematerialization of the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 119-130, October.
  4. Jack E. Triplett & Barry P. Bosworth, 2003. "Productivity measurement issues in services industries: "Baumol's disease" has been cured," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 23-33.
  5. Baumol, William J, 1972. "Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 150, March.
  6. Joseph P. Newhouse, 2001. "Medical Care Price Indices: Problems and Opportunities / The Chung-Hua Lectures," NBER Working Papers 8168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Mark Setterfield, 2003. "Supply and Demand in the Theory of Long-run Growth: Introduction to a symposium on demand-led growth," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 23-32.
  8. Jochen Hartwig, 2005. "On misusing National Accounts data for governance purposes," KOF Working papers 05-101, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  9. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 281.
  10. Jochen Hartwig & Bernd Schips, 2004. "Verzerrungen von Konsumentenpreisindizes und ihr Einfluss auf das «reale» Wirtschaftswachstum – dargestellt am Beispiel der USA," KOF Working papers 04-94, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  11. Jochen Hartwig, 2006. "Messprobleme bei der Ermittlung des Wachstums der Arbeitsproduktivitaet - dargestellt anhand eines Vergleichs der Schweiz mit den USA," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 226(4), pages 418-435, July.
  12. Nicholas Oulton, 2000. "Must the growth rate decline? Baumol's unbalanced growth revisited," Bank of England working papers 107, Bank of England.
  13. Nell,Edward J., 1998. "The General Theory of Transformational Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521590068.
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