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Response of Turkish Financial Markets to Negative Interest Rate Announcements of the ECB

Author

Listed:
  • Gokhan Sahin Gunes

    (Koc University-TUSIAD ERF and Koc University)

  • Sumru Oz

    (Koc University-TUSIAD ERF)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of negative interest rate announcements of the ECB on Turkish financial markets. Negative Interest Rate Policies (NIRP) are expected to affect emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) through an increase in the inflow of capital searching for higher yields. The expectation for an increase in short-term capital inflows to an EMDE might have transmission channels to the whole economy similar to those of expansionary monetary policies, except for a sign change in case of the exchange rate channel. The rest of the transmission channels are portfolio, interest rate, and credit channels. The latter is excluded from the analysis since it takes time to realize. Accordingly, we analyze the impact of negative interest rate announcements of the ECB on EUR/TRY and USD/TRY exchange rates; 1-month and 3-month TRLibor rates; BIST 100 Index, as well as 2-year and 10-year bond returns using GARCH (1,1) model. The results show that the announcements significantly affect both the volatility of Turkey's financial indicators and their returns especially through interest rate and portfolio channels. The robustness of the results on volatility is tested by using an event study.

Suggested Citation

  • Gokhan Sahin Gunes & Sumru Oz, 2016. "Response of Turkish Financial Markets to Negative Interest Rate Announcements of the ECB," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1614, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1614
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arteta,Carlos & Kose,Ayhan & Stocker,Marc & Taskin,Temel, 2016. "Negative interest rate policies : sources and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7791, The World Bank.
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    3. Yavuz ARSLAN & Temel TAŞKIN, 2014. "International Evidence on the Interaction between Cross-Border Capital Flows and Domestic Credit Growth," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 29(341), pages 37-56.
    4. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NIRP; transmission channels; financial indicators; Turkey.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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