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Can Turkish Recessions Be Predicted?


  • Adrian Pagan

    () (University of Technology, Sydney)


There is much scepticism about the ability to predict recessions. Harding and Pagan (2010b)have argued that this is because the definition of a recession involves the signs of future growth rates of economic activity and there is little predictability of these from the past. Turkey represents an interesting case study since growth in Turkish GDP features quite high serial correlation, suggesting that growth itself is predictable. Thus I want to examine whether it is possible to predict recessions in Turkey. As there seems only a small published literature on this it will be necessary to indicate what definition of recession is to be used and what information might be available to make a prediction of such an event. We found that using information from past macroeconomic variables would result in only limited success in predicting Turkish recessions.

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  • Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Can Turkish Recessions Be Predicted?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1027, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1027

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    1. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
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