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Skilled emigration and exchange rate : theory and empirics

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  • Paul, Saumik
  • Ouyang, Alice
  • Li, Rachel Cho Suet

Abstract

In this paper we build a theoretical model on the wage effect of skilled emigration to the fluctuations in real exchange rate through the relative prices of nontradables. Our theoretical model predicts that skilled emigration is associated with an increase in the prices of nontradable, which in turn appreciates the exchange rate. We provide robust empirical support to a higher skilled emigration associated with higher prices in nontradables and appreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Based on two samples of countries with 51 and 67 observations, in 1990 and 2000 respectively, we find robust empirical support to a higher skilled emigration associated with higher prices in nontradables and appreciation of the REER. In addition, the support for the remittance-channel of the Dutch disease is also significant; overall, our findings corroborate the remittance-based Dutch disease phenomenon by providing an additional channel through which the labor mobility across borders affects the real exchange rate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul, Saumik & Ouyang, Alice & Li, Rachel Cho Suet, 2014. "Skilled emigration and exchange rate : theory and empirics," IDE Discussion Papers 484, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper484
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August.
    2. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey & Federico S. Mandelman & Pablo A. Acosta, 2012. "Remittances, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 377-395, May.
    3. Marjit, Sugata & Kar, Saibal, 2005. "Emigration and wage inequality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 141-145, July.
    4. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Anjali Garg, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa: What's the Damage?," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 12(1), pages 73-96.
    5. Anwar, Sajid, 2006. "Factor mobility and wage inequality in the presence of specialisation-based external economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 88-93, October.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances

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