Persistent Energy Poverty and the Limits of Institutional Support: Evidence from the Spanish Bono Social

While a growing body of research has analysed the determinants of energy poverty, less is known about its dynamic nature and about whether current support schemes adequately reach households experiencing multidimensional vulnerability. Using the 2020-2023 longitudinal data from the Spanish component of the EU-SILC, the paper estimates the extent of energy poverty persistence in Spain and assesses the protective role of the Bono Social -Spain’s main public support scheme for vulnerable energy consumers. The paper also simulates the potential impact of alternative cash-equivalent energy support. The results show strong inertia effects: households experiencing energy poverty in the previous period are 1.9 to 6.4 percentage points more likely to experience it again. We also document important limitations in the coverage and take-up of the Bono Social. Counterfactual simulations indicate that a modest annual energy support transfer of € 500 per household can substantially reduce energy poverty, with reductions ranging from 1.8 to 17.3 percentage points. These findings highlight the need for more differentiated and better-targeted policy interventions.