IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp18475.html

Religious Polarisation, Economic Vulnerability, and Electoral Realignment: Evidence from West Bengal, India

Author

Listed:
  • Dey, Subhasish

    (University of Warwick)

  • Natarajan, Vidhyarth

    (Independent Researcher)

  • Sahoo, Soham

    (Indian Institute of Management Bangalore)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate on identity politics by examining whether the religious composition of voters predicts electoral outcomes. Using assembly constituency-level data from six elections in West Bengal, India, between 2011 and 2024, we study how the Muslim population share relates to party performance. We show that religious composition becomes a much stronger correlate of electoral outcomes in the later period (from 2016 onwards): constituencies with higher Muslim shares increasingly align with the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC), while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) consolidates support in constituencies with lower Muslim shares. We also document heterogeneity within predominantly Hindu constituencies. Economically vulnerable areas - proxied by higher shares of marginal agricultural labourers - remain relatively more supportive of the TMC, while better-off agricultural constituencies shift towards the BJP. Together, the results suggest that West Bengal's recent electoral realignment reflects both strengthening religious polarisation and an interaction between identity-based mobilisation and material considerations, with implications for political competition and accountability in democracies.

Suggested Citation

  • Dey, Subhasish & Natarajan, Vidhyarth & Sahoo, Soham, 2026. "Religious Polarisation, Economic Vulnerability, and Electoral Realignment: Evidence from West Bengal, India," IZA Discussion Papers 18475, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18475
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp18475.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clots-Figueras, Irma & Cassan, Guilhem & Iyer, Lakshmi, 2014. "Religion, politician identity and development outcomes: Evidence from India," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 4-17.
    2. Dreze, Jean & Goyal, Aparajita, 2003. "Future of Mid-Day Meals," MPRA Paper 17386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. George A. Akerlof & Rachel E. Kranton, 2000. "Economics and Identity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 715-753.
    4. Giampaolo Bonomi & Nicola Gennaioli & Guido Tabellini, 2021. "Identity, Beliefs, and Political Conflict," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2371-2411.
    5. K. K. Kailash, 2024. "The Politics of Social Welfare: The BJP and the Discerning Voter," Studies in Indian Politics, , vol. 12(2), pages 228-250, December.
    6. Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The Political Economy of Hatred," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 45-86.
    7. Benn Eifert & Edward Miguel & Daniel N. Posner, 2010. "Political Competition and Ethnic Identification in Africa," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(2), pages 494-510, April.
    8. Neelanjan Sircar, 2022. "Religion-as-Ethnicity and the Emerging Hindu Vote in India," Studies in Indian Politics, , vol. 10(1), pages 79-92, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuki, Kazuhiro, 2021. "Modernization, social identity, and ethnic conflict," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Schnellenbach, Jan & Schubert, Christian, 2015. "Behavioral political economy: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 395-417.
    3. Alan Manning & Sanchari Roy, 2007. "Culture Clash or Culture Club? The Identity and Attitudes of Immigrants in Britain," CEP Discussion Papers dp0790, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Panu Poutvaara & Mikael Priks, 2005. "Violent Groups and Police Tactics: Should Tear Gas Make Crime Preventers Cry?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1639, CESifo.
    5. Rusch, Hannes, 2023. "The logic of human intergroup conflict:," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    6. Ananyev, Maxim & Poyker, Michael, 2023. "Identity and conflict: Evidence from Tuareg rebellion in Mali," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    7. Paul Heidhues & Botond KH{o}szegi & Philipp Strack, 2019. "Overconfidence and Prejudice," Papers 1909.08497, arXiv.org.
    8. Murshed Syed Mansoob, 2009. "A Note on the Interaction between Identity Based Fear and Hate," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-7, March.
    9. Daniele Pennesi, 2020. "Identity and information acquisition," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 610, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2021.
    10. Chaudhary, Latika & Rubin, Jared, 2016. "Religious identity and the provision of public goods: Evidence from the Indian Princely States," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 461-483.
    11. Syed Mansoob Murshed, 2011. "The Clash of Civilizations and the Interaction between Fear and Hatred," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 31-48, March.
    12. Sonia Bhalotra & Irma Clots-Figueras & Lakshmi Iyer & Joseph Vecci, 2023. "Leader Identity and Coordination," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 175-189, January.
    13. Rachel E. Kranton, 2016. "Ekonomia tożsamości w 2016 roku: skąd biorą się podziały i normy społeczne?," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 139-146.
    14. Buscha, Franz & Muller, Daniel & Page, Lionel, 2017. "Can a common currency foster a shared social identity across different nations? The case of the euro," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 318-336.
    15. Arthur Blouin & Sharun W. Mukand, 2019. "Erasing Ethnicity? Propaganda, Nation Building, and Identity in Rwanda," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1008-1062.
    16. Maiti, Surya Nath & Pakrashi, Debayan & Saha, Sarani & Smyth, Russell, 2022. "Don't judge a book by its cover: The role of intergroup contact in reducing prejudice in conflict settings," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 533-548.
    17. Abramson, Boaz & Shayo, Moses, 2022. "International integration and social identity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Hamlin, Alan & Jennings, Colin, 2007. "Leadership and conflict," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 49-68, September.
    19. Jha, Saumitra, 2014. "‘Unfinished business’: Historic complementarities, political competition and ethnic violence in Gujarat," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 18-36.
    20. Snower, Dennis J. & Bosworth, Steven J., 2021. "Economic, social and political fragmentation: Linking knowledge-biased growth, identity, populism and protectionism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Fallak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaalu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.