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Financial Hardship and Saving Behaviour: Bayesian Analysis of British Panel Data

Listed author(s):
  • Brown, Sarah

    ()

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Ghosh, Pulak

    ()

    (Indian Institute of Management)

  • Pareek, Bhuvanesh

    (Indian Institute of Management)

  • Taylor, Karl

    ()

    (University of Sheffield)

We explore whether a protective role for savings against future financial hardship exists using household level panel data. We jointly model the incidence and extent of financial problems, as well as the likelihood of having secured debt and the amount of monthly secured debt repayments, allowing for dynamics and interdependence in both of the two-part outcomes. A two-part process is important given the considerable inflation at zero when analysing financial problems. The model is estimated using a flexible Bayesian approach with correlated random effects and the findings suggest that: (i) saving on a regular basis mitigates both the likelihood of experiencing, as well as the number of, future financial problems; (ii) state dependence in financial problems exists; (iii) interdependence exists between financial problems and secured debt, specifically higher levels of mortgage debt are associated with an increased probability of experiencing financial hardship.

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File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp10910.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 10910.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2017
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10910
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  1. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
  2. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2014. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-44, March.
  3. Crainiceanu, Ciprian M. & Ruppert, David & Wand, Matthew P., 2005. "Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 14(i14).
  4. Martin Browning & Thomas F. Crossley, 2001. "The Life-Cycle Model of Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
  5. Kennickell, Arthur & Lusardi, Annamaria, 2005. "Disentangling the importance of the precautionary saving motive," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Guariglia, Alessandra & Rossi, Mariacristina, 2004. "Private medical insurance and saving: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 761-783, July.
  7. Yang Li & Asim Ansari, 2014. "A Bayesian Semiparametric Approach for Endogeneity and Heterogeneity in Choice Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1161-1179, May.
  8. Mark Kazarosian, 1997. "Precautionary Savings-A Panel Study," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 241-247, May.
  9. Bridges, Sarah & Disney, Richard, 2010. "Debt and depression," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 388-403, May.
  10. Sarah Brown & Pulak Ghosh & Karl Taylor, 2016. "Household Finances and Social Interaction: Bayesian Analysis of Household Panel Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 467-488, 09.
  11. Alessandra Guariglia, 2001. "Saving behaviour and earnings uncertainty: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 619-634.
  12. Brown, Sarah & Taylor, Karl, 2016. "Early influences on saving behaviour: Analysis of British panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-14.
  13. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Household debt and financial assets: evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the USA," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(3), pages 615-643.
  14. Smith, Michael & Kohn, Robert, 1996. "Nonparametric regression using Bayesian variable selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 317-343, December.
  15. Brown, Sarah & Ghosh, Pulak & Su, Li & Taylor, Karl, 2015. "Modelling household finances: A Bayesian approach to a multivariate two-part model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 190-207.
  16. Bei Jiang & Naisyin Wang & Mary D. Sammel & Michael R. Elliott, 2015. "Modelling short- and long-term characteristics of follicle stimulating hormone as predictors of severe hot flashes in the Penn Ovarian Aging Study," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(5), pages 731-753, November.
  17. Julie Le Blanc & Alessandro Porpiglia & Federica Teppa & Junyi Zhu & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2016. "Household Saving Behavior in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 15-69, June.
  18. Yang, Mingan & Dunson, David B. & Baird, Donna, 2010. "Semiparametric Bayes hierarchical models with mean and variance constraints," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(9), pages 2172-2186, September.
  19. Atsushi Yoshida & Alessandra Guariglia, 2002. "Estimating saving functions in the presence of excessive-zeros problems," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 435-456, 06.
  20. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769, June.
  21. Daniel B. Hall, 2000. "Zero-Inflated Poisson and Binomial Regression with Random Effects: A Case Study," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 1030-1039, December.
  22. Giarda, Elena, 2013. "Persistency of financial distress amongst Italian households: Evidence from dynamic models for binary panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3425-3434.
  23. Mark Taylor, 2011. "Measuring Financial Capability and its Determinants Using Survey Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 102(2), pages 297-314, June.
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