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Expectations and the Timing of Neighborhood Change

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  • Frankel, David M.
  • Pauzner, Ady

Abstract

We study the role of expectations when agents have a preference for segregation and households face moving frictions. In a fixed environment, there are multiple equilibria: agents' expectations determine whether an ethnic transition occurs. However, the outcome is unique if there is a deterministic trend that gradually makes the neighborhood more appealing to the outside group. It is also unique if the relative payoff from living in the neighborhood is subject to small shocks. In both cases, the insiders must leave at the first possible moment: when the outsiders would outbid them if an immediate ethnic transition were expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, David M. & Pauzner, Ady, 2002. "Expectations and the Timing of Neighborhood Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11921, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:11921
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Frankel & Ady Pauzner, 2000. "Resolving Indeterminacy in Dynamic Settings: The Role of Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 285-304.
    2. Burdzy, Krzysztof & Frankel, David M & Pauzner, Ady, 2001. "Fast Equilibrium Selection by Rational Players Living in a Changing World," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 163-189, January.
    3. Miyao, Takahiro, 1978. "Dynamic Instability of a Mixed City in the Presence of Neighborhood Externalities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 454-463, June.
    4. Collins, Wiiliam J., 1997. "When the Tide Turned: Immigration and the Delay of the Great Black Migration," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(03), pages 607-632, September.
    5. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416-416.
    6. Epple, Dennis & Romer, Thomas, 1991. "Mobility and Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 828-858, August.
    7. W. Clark, 1991. "Residential preferences and neighborhood racial segregation: A test of the schelling segregation model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 28(1), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Courant, Paul N., 1978. "Racial prejudice in a search model of the urban housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 329-345, July.
    9. Roland Bénabou, 1996. "Equity and Efficiency in Human Capital Investment: The Local Connection," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 237-264.
    10. Bond, Eric W. & Coulson, N. Edward, 1989. "Externalities, filtering, and neighborhood change," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 231-249, September.
    11. Roland Benabou, 1993. "Workings of a City: Location, Education, and Production," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 619-652.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, David M., 2012. "Recurrent crises in global games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 309-321.
    2. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Machado, Caio, 2013. "Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies," MPRA Paper 48895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:eee:mateco:v:73:y:2017:i:c:p:13-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ouazad, Amine, 2015. "Blockbusting: Brokers and the dynamics of segregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 811-841.
    6. Jean-Marc Tallon, 2006. "Incertitude stratégique et sélection d'équilibre : deux applications," Revue d'économie industrielle, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 6-6.
    7. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Pereira, Ana Elisa, 2017. "Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 13-33.
    8. Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos & Machado, Caio Henrique & Pereira, Ana Elisa Gonçalves, 2017. "Dynamic coordination with timing frictions: theory and applications," Textos para discussão 461, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    9. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Pereira, Ana Elisa, 2016. "QWERTY is efficient," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 819-825.

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