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Intra-distribution dynamics of regional per-capita income in Europe: evidence from alternative conditional density estimators


  • Roberto Basile

    () (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)


This paper compares different conditional density estimators to analyze the cross-sectional distribution dynamics of regional per-capita incomes in Europe during the period 1980-2002. First, a kernel estimator with fixed bandwidth gives evidence of convergence. With a modified estimator with variable bandwidth and mean-bias correction, the dominant income dynamics is that of persistence and lack of cohesion: only a fraction of very poor regions improves its position over time converging towards a low relative income. An alternative graphical technique (more informative than the traditional contour plot) is also proposed to visualize conditional densities. Finally, a first-order spatial autoregressive model is applied to estimate the effect of spatial dependence on the evolution of income distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Basile, 2007. "Intra-distribution dynamics of regional per-capita income in Europe: evidence from alternative conditional density estimators," ISAE Working Papers 75, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  • Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:75

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1045-1055, July.
    2. Hyndman, R.J. & Yao, Q., 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation and Symmetry Tests for Conditional Density Functions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Enrique Lopez Bazo & Esther Vaya Valcarce & Antonio Jose Mora & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 1997. "Regional economic dynamics and convergence in the european union," Working Papers in Economics 12, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    4. Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Quah, Danny, 2001. "Searching for prosperity a comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 305-319, December.
    6. Fan, Jianqing & Yao, Qiwei & Tong, Howell, 1996. "Estimation of conditional densities and sensitivity measures in nonlinear dynamical systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6704, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Ana Lamo, 2000. "On convergence empirics: same evidence for Spanish regions," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(3), pages 681-707, September.
    8. Bashtannyk, David M. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2001. "Bandwidth selection for kernel conditional density estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 279-298, May.
    9. Fingleton, Bernard, 1997. "Specification and Testing of Markov Chain Models: An Application to Convergence in the European Union," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 385-403, August.
    10. Quah, Danny, 1993. " Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 427-443, December.
    11. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
    12. Magrini, Stefano, 1999. "The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-281, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Serge Rey & Florent Deisting, 2012. "GDP per Capita among African Countries over the Period 1950–2008: Highlights of Convergence Clubs," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 2779-2800.
    2. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto, 2015. "Spatial Distribution Dynamics," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1172, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Liontakis, Angelos E. & Papadas, Christos T., 2009. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58084, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Licia Ferranna & Margherita Gerolimetto & Stefano Magrini, 2016. "The effect of immigration on convergence dynamics in the US," Working Papers 2016:27, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Margherita Gerolimetto & Stefano Magrini, 2016. "Distribution Dynamics in the US. A Spatial Perspective," Working Papers 2016:02, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Olivier Peron & Serge Rey, 2012. "Trade and convergence of per capita income in the Indian Ocean Zone, 1950–2008," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 657-683, December.
    7. Roberto Basile, 2009. "Productivity Polarization across Regions in Europe," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 32(1), pages 92-115, January.
    8. repec:elg:eechap:14395_11 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Intra-distribution dynamics; Conditional density estimators; Convergence; European regions; Spatial dependence;

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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