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Restrições Macroeconômicas ao Crescimento da Economia Brasileira: Diagnósticos e Algumas Proposições de Política

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  • José Luis Oreiro
  • Lionello Punzo
  • Eliane Araújo
  • Gabriel Squeff

Abstract

Neste artigo argumentamos que a economia brasileira passou por um processo recente de aceleração do crescimento, puxado pelas exportações e pela formação bruta de capital fixo (FBCF). Embora esse padrão de crescimento seja mais robusto do que o verificado na década de 1990, constata-se ainda a existência de restrições macroeconômicas à continuidade desse crescimento no longo prazo, quais sejam, o desequilíbrio cambial, verificado na economia brasileira notadamente a partir de 2005, e o modus operandi da política monetária. Essas restrições podem comprometer a sustentabilidade do atual padrão de crescimento da economia brasileira num contexto internacional caracterizado pela ocorrência de uma crise financeira internacional em larga escala e de uma forte recessão mundial Dessa forma, podemos afirmar que ainda existe no Brasil uma armadilha juros-câmbio. Nesse contexto, a eliminação do desalinhamento cambial impõe a necessidade de se manter uma política monetária apertada num contexto de desaceleração do ritmo de crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) devido aos efeitos da crise internacional, o que tem impacto nocivo sobre o investimento e, portanto, sobre a sustentabilidade do crescimento econômico no longo prazo. Para eliminar esta armadilha propomos um conjunto de medidas de política econômica, a saber: adoção de metas implícitas de câmbio, controles sobre a saída de capitais de curto prazo e a flexibilização do regime de metas de inflação no Brasil. This paper argues that the Brazilian economy went recently through a process of accelerated growth driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990 decade, we can still see the presence of macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run, like, an exchange rate overvaluation that has appeared in the economy in particular since 2005, and the modus operandi of its monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the very sustainability of the current pace of growth in an international context that is characterized by the occurrence of an international financial crisis on a large scale and a strong global recession. Therefore, we can argue that Brazil is still in a trap made up of interest rate and exchange rate. In such contest, the elimintation of the exchange misalignment would fore a great hike in the rates of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and thence upo the sustainbility of the economic growth in the long run. To eliminate such a trap we outline a set of policy measures, in particualr. The adoption of implicit rate of exchange targets, controls on mobility of short run capital and a flexibilizxation of the inflation targets model.

Suggested Citation

  • José Luis Oreiro & Lionello Punzo & Eliane Araújo & Gabriel Squeff, 2009. "Restrições Macroeconômicas ao Crescimento da Economia Brasileira: Diagnósticos e Algumas Proposições de Política," Discussion Papers 1431, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1431
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269.
    2. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," International Finance 9707001, EconWPA.
    3. Thirlwall, A P, 1969. "Unemployment Compensation as an Automatic Stabilizer," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 31(1), pages 23-37, February.
    4. Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
    5. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," NBER Working Papers 6174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva & José Luís Oreiro & Luciano Nakabashi & Breno Pascualote Lemos, 2007. "A Macroeconomia Do Crescimento Puxado Pela Demanda Agregada: Teoria E Aplicações Ao Caso Brasileiro," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 173, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The Nature of Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2579, September.
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