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Empirical Significance of Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Firm-Specific Capital

Author

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  • James Murray

    () (Indiana University Bloomington)

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical significance of learning, a type of adaptive, boundedly rational expectations, in the U.S. economy within the framework of the New Keynesian model. Two popular specifications of the model are estimated: the standard three equation model that does not include capital, and an extended model that allows for endogenous capital accumulation. Estimation results for learning models can be sensitive to the choice for the initial conditions for agents expectations, so four different methods for choosing initial conditions are examined, including jointly estimating the initial conditions with the other parameters of the model. Maximum likelihood results show that learning under all methods for initial conditions lead to very similar predictions as rational expectations, and do not significantly improve the fit the model. The evolution of forecast errors show that the learning models do not out perform the rational expectations model during the run-up of inflation in the 1970s and the subsequent decline in the 1980s, a period of U.S. history which others have suggested learning may play a role. Despite the failure of learning models to better explain the data, analysis of the paths of expectations and structural shocks during the sample show that allowing for learning in the models can lead to different explanations for the data.

Suggested Citation

  • James Murray, 2008. "Empirical Significance of Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Firm-Specific Capital," Caepr Working Papers 2007-027, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2007027
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    File URL: http://www.iub.edu/~caepr/RePEc/PDF/2007/CAEPR2007-027.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2007. "Adaptive learning in practice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2659-2697, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cagliarini, Adam & Robinson, Tim & Tran, Allen, 2011. "Reconciling microeconomic and macroeconomic estimates of price stickiness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 102-120.
    2. James Murray, 2008. "Regime Switching, Learning, and the Great Moderation," Caepr Working Papers 2008-011, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Learning; firm-specific capital; New Keynesian model; maximum likelihood;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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