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A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level: Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

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  • Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
  • Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi
  • Claudio Battiati
  • Mrs. Mai Farid

Abstract

What constitutes fiscal space or a prudent level of debt to conduct countercyclical policy while ensuring debt sustainability? This paper addresses the question by exploring the relationship between debt dynamics, and the probabilistic distribution of the primary balance and the effective interest rate. This proposed approach is useful in situations where the lack of relevant data makes it difficult to estimate detailed fiscal reaction functions. Applying this approach to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) and based on various debt ceiling assumptions, we find that about 60 percent of these countries presently have fiscal policy space to address adverse shocks, subject to the availability of domestic and external financing. Countries with strong institutional capacity tend to have more fiscal space, and countries with weak institutional capacity, mostly countries in conflict and fragile states, tend to lack fiscal space.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi & Claudio Battiati & Mrs. Mai Farid, 2016. "A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level: Application to Low-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/163, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Ioana-Laura Țibulcă, 2021. "Debt Sustainability: Can EU Member States Use Environmental Taxes to Regain Fiscal Space?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, May.
    5. Ms. Anja Baum & Andrew Hodge & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Rene Tapsoba, 2017. "Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2017/110, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Fatih AKBAYIR & Ahmet Burçin YERELİ, 2018. "Fiscal Space and Estimating Methods," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(38).
    7. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "De Facto Fiscal Space in Donor-countries and Their Aid Supply: To What Extent is Trade-related Aid Supply Affected?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, June.

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