IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2015-143.html

The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows: An Exploration of U.S. Data

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Herman
  • Ms. Deniz O Igan
  • Mr. Juan Sole

Abstract

This paper exploits the Financial Accounts of the United States to derive long time series of bank and nonbank credit to different sectors, and to examine the cyclical behavior of these series in relation to (i) the long-term business cycle, (ii) recessions and recoveries, and (iii) systemic financial crises. We find that bank and nonbank credit exhibit different dynamics throughout the business cycle. This diverging cyclical behavior of output and bank and nonbank credit argues for placing greater emphasis on sector-specific macroprudential measures to contain risks to the financial system, rather than using interest rates to address any vulnerabilities. Finally, we examine the role of bank and nonbank credit in the creation of financial interconnections and illustrate a method to conduct macro-financial stability assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Herman & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Juan Sole, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows: An Exploration of U.S. Data," IMF Working Papers 2015/143, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/143
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43039
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    2. Loutskina, Elena, 2011. "The role of securitization in bank liquidity and funding management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 663-684, June.
    3. Mr. Luca Errico & Artak Harutyunyan & Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Richard Walton & Ms. Yevgeniya Korniyenko & Hanan AbuShanab & Mr. Hyun S Shin, 2014. "Mapping the Shadow Banking System Through a Global Flow of Funds Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2014/010, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
    5. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "The Changing Nature of Financial Intermediation and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 603-618, September.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    9. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia, 2012. "Leverage? What Leverage? A Deep Dive into the U.S. Flow of Funds in Search of Clues to the Global Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2012/162, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "The changing nature of financial intermediation and the financial crisis of 2007-09," Staff Reports 439, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    13. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2010. "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9111, December.
    14. Duca, John V., 2016. "How capital regulation and other factors drive the role of shadow banking in funding short-term business credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 10-24.
    15. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, August.
    16. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    17. Benjamin Nelson & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 198-211, March.
    18. Artak Harutyunyan & Mr. Alexander Massara & Giovanni Ugazio & Goran Amidžic & Richard Walton, 2015. "Shedding Light on Shadow Banking," IMF Working Papers 2015/001, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Joshua Gallin, 2013. "Shadow Banking and the Funding of the Nonfinancial Sector," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 89-123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hyun, Junghwan, 2016. "Financial crises and the evolution of credit reallocation: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 25-34.
    2. J. Boeckx & P. Ilbas & M. Kasongo Kashama & M. de Sola Perea & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2015. "Interactions between monetary and macroprudential policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-29, september.
    3. P. Lakshmi & M. Thenmozhi & Nikhil Varaiya, 2019. "Determinants of Aggregate Credit Flows to U.S. Corporate and Noncorporate Sector," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440188, January.
    4. Martin Hodula & Martin Macháček & Aleš Melecký, 2020. "Placing the Czech Shadow Banking Sector under the Light," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(1), pages 3-28.
    5. Martin Hodula & Martin Macháček & Aleš Melecký, . "Placing the Czech Shadow Banking Sector under the Light," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-25.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herman, Alexander & Igan, Deniz & Solé, Juan, 2017. "The macroeconomic relevance of bank and nonbank credit: An exploration of U.S. data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 124-141.
    2. Amat Adarov, 2022. "Financial cycles around the world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3163-3201, July.
    3. Amat Adarov, 2017. "Financial Cycles in Credit, Housing and Capital Markets: Evidence from Systemic Economies," wiiw Working Papers 140, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    5. Hodula, Martin & Janků, Jan & Pfeifer, Lukáš, 2023. "Macro-prudential policies to contain the effect of structural risks on financial downturns," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1204-1222.
    6. Borsi, Mihály Tamás, 2018. "Credit contractions and unemployment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 573-593.
    7. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Paolo Piselli, 2015. "Business Cycles, Credit Cycles and Bank Holdings of Sovereign Bonds: Historical Evidence for Italy 1861-2013," CESifo Working Paper Series 5318, CESifo.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
    9. Schüler, Yves S. & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Hiebert, Paul, 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
    10. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, May.
    11. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
    12. Gaston Giordana & Sabbah Gueddoudj, 2016. "Characterising the financial cycle in Luxembourg," BCL working papers 103, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    13. Hodula, Martin & Pfeifer, Lukáš & Janků, Jan, 2022. "The effect of structural risks on financial downturns," ESRB Working Paper Series 138, European Systemic Risk Board.
    14. Greg Farrell & Esti Kemp, 2020. "Measuring the Financial Cycle in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 123-144, June.
    15. Khwazi Magubane, 2024. "Financial cycles synchronisation in South Africa. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) Approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 2321069-232, December.
    16. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2019. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 541-569, September.
    17. Jakob Fiedler & Josef Ruzicka & Thomas Theobald, 2019. "The Real-Time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles," IMK Working Paper 198-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    18. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2024. "Capital flow dynamics and the synchronization of financial cycles and business cycles in emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    19. Patnaik, Ila & Mittal, Shalini & Pandey, Radhika, 2019. "Examining the trade-off between price and financial stability in India," Working Papers 19/248, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    20. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.