IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2014-080.html

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Alberto Behar
  • Jaime Espinosa-Bowen

Abstract

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Alberto Behar & Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, 2014. "Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/080, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/080
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41546
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    2. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Mr. Adolfo Barajas, 2012. "Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2012/104, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Bas & Ivan Ledezma, 2010. "Trade integration and within-plant productivity evolution in Chile," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(1), pages 113-146, April.
    2. Valeria Costantini & Francesco Crespi, 2015. "European enlargement policy, technological capabilities and sectoral export dynamics," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 25-69, February.
    3. Nazif Durmaz & John Kagochi, 2018. "Democracy and Inter-Regional Trade Enhancement in Sub-Saharan Africa: Gravity Model," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, August.
    4. William F. Lincoln & Andrew H. McCallum & Michael Siemer, 2017. "The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Paola Cardamone, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
    6. Barrell, Ray & Nahhas, Abdulkader, 2018. "Economic integration and bilateral FDI stocks: the impacts of NAFTA and the EU," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90372, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Sithanonxay SUVANNAPHAKDY & Toshihisa TOYODA & Chris CZERKAWSKI, 2011. "Enhancing Trade Flows in ASEAN Plus Six," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(2).
    8. Francois, Joseph & Manchin, Miriam, 2013. "Institutions, Infrastructure, and Trade," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 165-175.
    9. De Benedictis Luca & Vicarelli Claudio, 2005. "Trade Potentials in Gravity Panel Data Models," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33, September.
    10. Maria Bas & Ivan Ledezma, 2008. "Trade integration and within-plant productivity evolution in Chile," Working Papers halshs-00588309, HAL.
    11. De Vita, Glauco, 2014. "The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 226-233.
    12. Abida Zouheir & Imen Mohamed Sghaier, 2014. "Remittances, Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of North African Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(51), pages 137-170, March.
    13. Rahman, Mizanur, 2008. "The Impact of a Common Currency on East Asian Production Networks and China’s Exports Behavior," MPRA Paper 13931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Karel Janda & Eva Michalíková & Jiøí Skuhrovec, 2012. "Credit Support for Export: Econometric Evidence from the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2012.
    15. Tabellini, Marco & Magistretti, Giacomo, 2020. "Economic Integration and Democracy: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 14336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Raphaël Chiappini, 2012. "Un réexamen de la relation entre commerce et Investissement Direct à l'étranger (IDE) à partir d'un modèle en panel dynamique Le cas de l'Allemagne, la France et l'Italie," Working Papers hal-00744405, HAL.
    17. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2011. "Globalization and growth in the low income African countries with the extreme bounds analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 795-805, May.
    18. Richard Frensch, 2010. "European trade in parts and components : searching (for a trade model for searching) for offshoring evidence," Working Papers 280, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    19. Anne Musson, 2012. "The importance of the stakeholders’ involvement in building indicators. The case of environmental regulation in France," Working Papers hal-02947023, HAL.
    20. Sajitha Beevi Karayil, 2021. "Movement of natural persons and the sieve of immigration policy: Evidence from United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 853-879, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.