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Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Clinton
  • Marianne Johnson
  • Huigang Chen
  • Mr. Ondrej Kamenik
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton

Abstract

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Clinton & Marianne Johnson & Huigang Chen & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2009/214, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/214
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    Cited by:

    1. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
    2. Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Michel Juillard & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2015. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency," IMF Working Papers 2015/132, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Kevin Clinton & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Marianne Johnson & Ondrej Kamenik & Douglas Laxton, 2010. "International Deflation Risks under Alternative Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Sticky Prices and Inflation Dynamics (NBER-TCER-CEPR), pages 140-177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Rahul Anand & Yaroslav Hul, 2019. "Achieving the Bank of Japan’s Inflation Target," IMF Working Papers 2019/229, International Monetary Fund.

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