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Modeling Inflation for Mali

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  • Mame Astou Diouf

Abstract

This paper investigates how consumer price inflation is determined in Mali for 1979-2006 along three macroeconomic explanations: (1) monetarist theories, emphasizing the impact of excess money supply, (2) the structuralist hypothesis, stressing the impact of supply-side constraints, and (3) external theories, describing the effects of foreign transmission mechanisms on a small open economy. The analysis makes use of cointegration techniques and general-to-specific modeling. Average national rainfall, and to a lesser extent deviations from monetary and external sector equilibrium are found to be the main long-run determinants of inflation. The paper offers policy recommendations for controlling inflation in Mali.

Suggested Citation

  • Mame Astou Diouf, 2007. "Modeling Inflation for Mali," IMF Working Papers 2007/295, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/295
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2010/135, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Tidiane Kinda, 2013. "Oil windfall, public spending and price stability: modelling inflation in Chad†," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(21), pages 3122-3135, July.
    3. Hesham Alogeel & Maher Hasan, 2008. "Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait," IMF Working Papers 2008/193, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Khatun, Fahmida & Ahamad, Mazbahul G., 2012. "Investigating the determinants of inflationary trends in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds F-Test Approach," MPRA Paper 42572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Abiola, A.G & Olofin, O.P, 2008. "Foreign aid, food supply and poverty reduction in Nigeria - Examination of possible nexus," MPRA Paper 16263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants of Inflation in GCC," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 141-158, January.
    7. Oulatta, Moon, 2016. "A Generic Theory of Price Determination," MPRA Paper 76014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. BIKAI, J. Landry & BATOUMEN M., Hardit & FOSSOUO, Armand, 2016. "Determinants of inflation in CEMAC: the role of money," MPRA Paper 89111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ntita Ntita, Jean & Kazadi Ntita, François & Ntanga Ntita, Jean de Dieu, 2017. "Determinants De L'Inflation Dans Les Pays De La Communaute Economique Et Monetaire De L'Afrique Centrale, (Cemac) [Determinants Of Inflation In Central African Economic And Monetary Community (Caem," MPRA Paper 92902, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2019.
    10. Barros, Geraldo Sant’Ana de Camargo & Carrara, Aniela Fagundes & Castro, Nicole Rennó & Silva, Adriana Ferreira, 2022. "Agriculture and inflation: Expected and unexpected shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 178-188.
    11. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 89-106.
    12. Teshale D. BEDADA & Wondaferahu M. DEMISSIE & Endeg T. WOLDE, 2020. "Determinants of Inflationary Experience in Ethiopia," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 4(1), pages 15-54.
    13. Dick Durevall & Bo Sjö, 2012. "Working Paper 151 - The Dynamics of Inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya," Working Paper Series 400, African Development Bank.
    14. LOENING, Josef & TAKADA, Hideki, 2008. "Inflationary Expectations In Ethiopia: Some Preliminary Results," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 159-176.
    15. Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "Modeling Inflation in Chad," IMF Working Papers 2011/057, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Maureen Teresa Odongo & Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Anne Wangari Kamau & Kethi Ngoka Kisingu, 2022. "Climate Change and Inflation in Eastern and Southern Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.

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