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Trade Diversion in the 'Left-Outs' in the Eastward Enlargement of the European Union

Author

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  • Fidrmuc, Jarko

    (Department of Economics, Institute for Advanced Studies)

Abstract

I analyze three scenarios including no Eastward enlargement of the EU and the accession of Central European countries including and excluding Slovakia. The formulation of these scenarios is derived from the evidence on former relations between EU and EFTA as estimated by gravity models for total trade and major SITC one-digit commodity groups. A significant part of Slovakia's extraordinary trade relations with the Czech Republic will diminish if the country does not participate in the first wave of Eastward enlargement of the EU. These export losses can be compensated by export gains to Hungary and Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Trade Diversion in the 'Left-Outs' in the Eastward Enlargement of the European Union," Transition Economics Series 8, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihstep:8
    as

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    File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/tec/te-8.pdf
    File Function: First version, 1999
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters,in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 141-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ricahrd E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, April.
    3. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    4. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    5. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    6. Robert Holzmann & Christian Thimann & Angela Petz, 1994. "Pressure to Adjust: Consequences for the OECD Countries from Reforms in Eastern Europe," International Trade 9403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Markusen, James R, 1986. "Explaining the Volume of Trade: An Eclectic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1002-1011, December.
    8. Markusen, James R & Wigle, Randall M, 1990. "Explaining the Volume of North-South Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1206-1215, December.
    9. Baldwin, Richard, 1993. "The Potential for Trade Between the Countries of EFTA and Central and Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
    2. Fidrmuc, J. & Horváth, J., 1998. "Stability of Monetary Unions : Lessons from the Break-Up of Czechoslovakia," Discussion Paper 1998-74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2000. "Integration, Disintegration and Trade in Europe: Evolution of Trade Relations During the 1990s," Working Papers 42, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in the Czech Republic and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00008, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    5. Joze Damijan & José de Sousa & Olivier Lamotte, 2010. "Trade Liberalization in Southeastern Europe," Chapters,in: Global Exchange and Poverty, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade predictions; Gravity model; Eastern enlargement of the EU; Slovakia;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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