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Trade Diversion in the 'Left-Outs' in the Eastward Enlargement of the European Union

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  • Fidrmuc, Jarko

    (Department of Economics, Institute for Advanced Studies)

Abstract

I analyze three scenarios including no Eastward enlargement of the EU and the accession of Central European countries including and excluding Slovakia. The formulation of these scenarios is derived from the evidence on former relations between EU and EFTA as estimated by gravity models for total trade and major SITC one-digit commodity groups. A significant part of Slovakia's extraordinary trade relations with the Czech Republic will diminish if the country does not participate in the first wave of Eastward enlargement of the EU. These export losses can be compensated by export gains to Hungary and Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Trade Diversion in the 'Left-Outs' in the Eastward Enlargement of the European Union," Transition Economics Series 8, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihstep:8
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    File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/tec/te-8.pdf
    File Function: First version, 1999
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Baldwin, Richard, 1993. "The Potential for Trade Between the Countries of EFTA and Central and Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. James R. Markusen, 2021. "Explaining the Volume of Trade: An Eclectic Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 9, pages 177-186, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Robert Holzmann & Christian Thimann & Angela Petz, 1994. "Pressure to Adjust: Consequences for the OECD Countries from Reforms in Eastern Europe," International Trade 9403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Integration, disintegration and trade in Europe: Evolution of trade relations during the 1990s," ZEI Working Papers B 03-2000, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    2. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    3. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in the Czech Republic and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00008, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    4. Joze Damijan & José de Sousa & Olivier Lamotte, 2010. "Trade Liberalization in Southeastern Europe," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas & Lyn Squire & T. N. Srinivasan (ed.), Global Exchange and Poverty, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
    6. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade predictions; Gravity model; Eastern enlargement of the EU; Slovakia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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