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Trade Diversion in the 'Left-Outs' in the Eastward Enlargement of the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Fidrmuc, Jarko

    (Department of Economics, Institute for Advanced Studies)

Abstract

I analyze three scenarios including no Eastward enlargement of the EU and the accession of Central European countries including and excluding Slovakia. The formulation of these scenarios is derived from the evidence on former relations between EU and EFTA as estimated by gravity models for total trade and major SITC one-digit commodity groups. A significant part of Slovakia's extraordinary trade relations with the Czech Republic will diminish if the country does not participate in the first wave of Eastward enlargement of the EU. These export losses can be compensated by export gains to Hungary and Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Trade Diversion in the 'Left-Outs' in the Eastward Enlargement of the European Union," Transition Economics Series 8, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihstep:8
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    File URL: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/1157
    File Function: First version, 1999
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, pages 141-168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    9. James R. Markusen, 2021. "Explaining the Volume of Trade: An Eclectic Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 9, pages 177-186, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in the Czech Republic and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00008, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    2. Joze Damijan & José de Sousa & Olivier Lamotte, 2010. "Trade Liberalization in Southeastern Europe," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas & Lyn Squire & T. N. Srinivasan (ed.), Global Exchange and Poverty, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    5. Fidrmuc, J. & Fidrmuc, J., 2000. "Integration, Disintegration and Trade in Europe : Evolution of Trade Relations during the 1990s," Other publications TiSEM b96a2a90-706a-4daa-8dd2-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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