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Possibly Nonstationary Cross-Validation

Author

Listed:
  • Federico M Bandi

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Valentina Corradi

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Daniel Wilhelm

    () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and UCL)

Abstract

Cross-validation is the most common data-driven procedure for choosing smoothing parameters in nonparametric regression. For the case of kernel estimators with iid or strong mixing data, it is well-known that the bandwidth chosen by crossvalidation is optimal with respect to the average squared error and other performance measures. In this paper, we show that the cross-validated bandwidth continues to be optimal with respect to the average squared error even when the datagenerating process is a -recurrent Markov chain. This general class of processes covers stationary as well as nonstationary Markov chains. Hence, the proposed procedure adapts to the degree of recurrence, thereby freeing the researcher from the need to assume stationary (or nonstationary) before inference begins. We study finite sample performance in a Monte Carlo study. We conclude by demonstrating the practical usefulness of cross-validation in a highly-persistent environment, namely that of nonlinear predictive systems for market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico M Bandi & Valentina Corradi & Daniel Wilhelm, 2016. "Possibly Nonstationary Cross-Validation," CeMMAP working papers CWP11/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:11/16
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    File URL: https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/cemmap/wps/cwp111616.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Xia, Yingcun & Li, W. K., 2002. "Asymptotic Behavior of Bandwidth Selected by the Cross-Validation Method for Local Polynomial Fitting," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 265-287, November.
    3. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    4. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    5. Qiying Wang & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2009. "Structural Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1901-1948, November.
    6. Gao, Jiti & Kanaya, Shin & Li, Degui & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2015. "Uniform Consistency For Nonparametric Estimators In Null Recurrent Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(05), pages 911-952, October.
    7. Emmanuel Guerre, 2004. "Design-Adaptive Pointwise Nonparametric Regression Estimation for Recurrent Markov Time Series," Working Papers 2004-22, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
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    12. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scholz, Michael & Sperlich, Stefan & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2016. "Nonparametric long term prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-96.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bandwidth Selection; Recurrence; Predictive Regressions;

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