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Growth by Destination (Where you Export Matters): Trade with China and Growth in African Countries

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  • Mina Baliamoune-Lutz

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Abstract

I perform Arellano-Bond GMM estimations using panel data over the period 1995-2008 and explore the growth effects of Africa’s trade with China, distinguishing between the effect of imports and the effect of exports, and controlling for the role of export concentration. Four important results are obtained from the empirical analysis. First, there is no empirical evidence that exports to China enhance growth unconditionally. Second, the results suggest that export concentration enhances the growth effects of exporting to China, implying that countries which export one major commodity to China benefit more (in terms of growth) than do countries that have more diversified exports. Third, contrary to the widely held view that increasing imports from China would have a negative effect, the empirical results show that the share of China in a country’s total imports has a robust positive effect on growth. Finally, the evidence suggests that there is an in verted-U relationship between exports to developed countries and growth in Africa. Overall, the results seem to provide support for the hypothesis of growth by destination (i.e., that where a country exports matters for the exporting country’s growth and development) in the sense that exports to more developed (OECD) countries has (at least up to a threshold) a positive impact on growth but no such effect is unambiguously (unconditionally) shown in the case of exports to China. I draw on these findings to outline some policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2010. "Growth by Destination (Where you Export Matters): Trade with China and Growth in African Countries," ICER Working Papers 22-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:22-2010
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Busse & Ceren Erdogan & Henning Mühlen, 2016. "China's Impact on Africa – The Role of Trade, FDI and Aid," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 228-262, May.
    2. repec:bla:afrdev:v:29:y:2017:i:2:p:139-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ana Paula Ribeiro & Paula Gracinda Teixeira Santos & Vitor Carvalho, 2013. "Export-led growth in Europe: Where and what to export?," EcoMod2013 5265, EcoMod.
    4. Amighini, Alessia & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2014. "Impact of South–South FDI and Trade on the Export Upgrading of African Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Araújo, Tanya & Ferreira, Manuel Ennes, 2016. "The topology of African exports: Emerging patterns on spanning trees," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 962-976.
    6. John Ssozi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2016. "The Comparative Economics of Catch-up in Output per Worker, Total Factor Productivity and Technological Gain in Sub-Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 215-228, June.
    7. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2017. "Trade and Environmental Quality in African Countries: Do Institutions Matter?," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 155-172, January.
    8. Abdoul' Ganiou Mijiyawa, 2013. "Africa's Recent Economic Growth: What Are the Contributing Factors?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(3), pages 289-302, September.
    9. Jonathan Munemo, 2013. "Trade between China and South Africa: Prospects of a Successful SACU-China Free Trade Agreement," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(3), pages 303-329, September.
    10. repec:eee:wdevel:v:102:y:2018:i:c:p:243-261 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Tanya Ara'ujo & M. Ennes Ferreira, 2016. "The Topology of African Exports: emerging patterns on spanning trees," Papers 1604.03522, arXiv.org.
    12. Ogundipe, Adeyemi & Alege, Philip & Ogundipe, Oluwatomisin, 2014. "Income Heterogeneity and Environmental Kuznets Curve in Africa," MPRA Paper 55822, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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