IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ias/fpaper/03-wp322.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China's Cotton Policy and the Impact of China's WTO Accession and Bt Cotton Adoption on the Chinese and U.S. Cotton Sectors

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng Fang
  • Bruce A. Babcock

Abstract

In this paper we provide an analysis of China's cotton policy and develop a framework to quantify the impact of both China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession and Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton adoption on Chinese and U.S. cotton sectors. We use a Chinese cotton sector model consisting of supply, demand, price linkages, and textiles output equations. A two-stage framework model provides gross cropping area and total area for cotton and major subsitute crops from nine cotton-producing regions in China. Cotton demand, total fiber demand, and cotton share are estimated for each end user. The estimated parameters from the Chinese model are then used with the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling system to simulate various scenarios of China's WTO accession and Bt cotton adoption. The results suggest China's accession to the WTO would increase Chinese cotton imports on average by 455 to 676 thousand metric tons (tmt) during the 2002-2011 projection period. With the adoption of Bt cotton-the WTO accession factor notwithstanding-China would increase its cotton imports by 427 to 648 tmt. In these scenarios, U.S. cotton exports increased by 76 to 109 tmt and 71 to 104 tmt, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng Fang & Bruce A. Babcock, 2003. "China's Cotton Policy and the Impact of China's WTO Accession and Bt Cotton Adoption on the Chinese and U.S. Cotton Sectors," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 03-wp322, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ias:fpaper:03-wp322
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.card.iastate.edu/products/publications/pdf/03wp322.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.card.iastate.edu/products/publications/synopsis/?p=408
    File Function: Online Synopsis
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & McBride, William D., 2000. "Genetically Engineered Crops For Pest Management In U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural Economic Reports 33931, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. MacDonald, Stephen & Pan, Suwen & Hudson, Darren & Tuan, Francis C., 2012. "Chinese Domestic Textiel Demand: Where Tehy Buy Does Matter," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126354, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. MacDonald, Stephen & Pan, Suwen & Somwaru, Agapi & Tuan, Francis C., 2004. "China'S Role In World Cotton And Textile Markets," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20054, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Xia, Doris Yan, 2005. "Impacts of Multi-Fiber Arrangement Removal on Global Textile and Cotton Trade," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19453, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Jia, Xiangping & Piotrowski, Stephan, 2006. "Land property, tenure security and credit access: a historical perspective of change processes in China," Research in Development Economics and Policy (Discussion Paper Series) 9083, Universitaet Hohenheim, Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics.
    5. Suwen Pan & Mark Welch & Samarendu Mohanty & Xiurong He, 2007. "Distortions of Sino‐US and Sino‐EU Safeguard Agreements: Effects on World Textile Markets," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(4), pages 78-88, July.
    6. Pan, Suwen & Welch, Mark & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fadiga, Mohamadou L., 2006. "Sino-U.S. and Sino-E.U. Textile Safeguard Agreements: Comparing the Effects to Free Market Conditions," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21117, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Suwen Pan & Jaime Malaga & Xiurong He, 2010. "Market liberalization and crop planting decision: a case of China," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(3), pages 240-250, September.
    8. Pan, Suwen & Welch, Mark & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Ethridge, Don E., 2005. "Assessing the Impacts of the Chinese TRQ System and U.S. Subsidies on the World Cotton Market," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 6(2), pages 1-16.
    9. Unknown, 2005. "Articles from Volume 1, Issue 1, 2005, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 1(1), pages 1-95.
    10. Muhammad, Andrew & McPhail, Lihong Lu & Kiawu, James, 2012. "Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 1-15, May.
    11. John Malcolm Dowling & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2005. "Central Asia: Mapping Future Prospects," Working Papers 05-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Feb 2006.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander E. Saak & David A. Hennessy, 2002. "Planting Decisions and Uncertain Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Crop Varieties," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 308-319.
    2. Sylvie Bonny, 2011. "Herbicide-tolerant Transgenic Soybean over 15 Years of Cultivation: Pesticide Use, Weed Resistance, and Some Economic Issues. The Case of the USA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(9), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Roberts, Roland K. & English, Burton C. & Gao, Qi & Larson, James A., 2006. "Simultaneous Adoption of Herbicide-Resistance and Conservation-Tillage Cotton Technologies," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Sydorovych, Olha & Marra, Michele C., 2005. "Towards a Generalizable Measure of the Value of a Change in Pesticide Use," 2005 Annual Meeting, February 5-9, 2005, Little Rock, Arkansas 35513, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Caroline Saunders & Selim Cagatay, 2003. "Commercial release of first‐generation genetically modified food products in New Zealand: using a partial equilibrium trade model to assess the impact on producer returns in New Zealand," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(2), pages 233-259, June.
    6. Nelson, Gerald C. & Bullock, David S., 2003. "Simulating a relative environmental effect of glyphosate-resistant soybeans," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 189-202, June.
    7. Olson, Kent D. & Elisabeth, Pascal, 2003. "An Economic Assessment Of The Whole-Farm Impact Of Precision Agriculture," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22119, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Sergio H. Lence & Sanjeev Agarwal, 2003. "Assessing the Feasibility of Processing and Marketing Niche Soy Oil," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 03-mrp6, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    9. Robert Dalpé, 2002. "Bibliometric analysis of biotechnology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 55(2), pages 189-213, August.
    10. Fang, Cheng & Fan, Shenggen, 2002. "Estimating Crop-Specific Production Growth And Sources In China," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19669, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Stone, Susan F. & Matysek, Anna & Dolling, Andrew, 2002. "Modelling Possible Impacts of GM Crops on Australian Trade," Staff Research Papers 31913, Productivity Commission.
    12. Paul, Catherine J. Morrison & Nehring, Richard, 2005. "Product diversification, production systems, and economic performance in U.S. agricultural production," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 525-548, June.
    13. Joshua D. Detre & Hiroki Uematsu & Ashok K. Mishra, 2011. "The influence of GM crop adoption on the profitability of farms operated by young and beginning farmers," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(1), pages 41-61, May.
    14. Anderson, Kym & Damania, Richard & Jackson, Lee Ann, 2004. "Trade Standards and the Political Economy of Genetically Modified Food," CEPR Discussion Papers 4526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Evita Pangaribowo & Nicolas Gerber & Pascal Tillie, 2013. "Assessing the FNS impacts of technological and institutional innovations and future innovation trends," FOODSECURE Working papers 11, LEI Wageningen UR.
    16. Traxler, Greg, 2004. "The Economic Impacts of Biotechnology-Based Technological Innovations," ESA Working Papers 23806, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    17. Oliver Musshoff & Norbert Hirschauer, 2011. "A behavioral economic analysis of bounded rationality in farm financing decisions," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(1), pages 62-83, May.
    18. Gomez-Barbero, Manuel & Rodgriguez-Cerezo, Emilio, 2005. "Estimate of the Potential Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton by Farmers in Southern Spain and its Economic Implications," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24556, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Kokoreva, Maria S. (Кокорева, Мария) & Stepanova, Anastasia N. (Степанова, Анастасия) & Karnoukhova, Elena V. (Карноухова, Елена), 2016. "What We Do not Know about the Ownership Structure of the Largest U.S. Companies? [Чего Мы Не Знаем О Структуре Собственности Крупнейших Компаний Сша?]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 36-59, December.
    20. Lin, William W. & Price, Gregory K. & Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge, 2001. "Estimating Farm-Level Effects Of Adopting Biotechnology," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20484, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ias:fpaper:03-wp322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/faiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.