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Planting Decisions and Uncertain Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Crop Varieties

  • Saak, Alexander
  • Hennessy, David A.

There exists much uncertainty about consumer attitudes toward genetically modified foods. If it happens that sufficient (insufficient) acres are planted under nonmodified seed to meet postharvest demand, then a price premium will not (will) emerge for the nonmodified varieties. A nonlinearity originates in the fact that a price premium may not be supported. This nonlinearity interacts with demand uncertainty to determine equilibrium plantings and the probability that postharvest varietal prices differ. Also, as planting approaches signals will be broadcast about the nature of postharvest demand. We show how the nonlinearity affects the types of signals that growers will prefer to receive.

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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 5026.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics, May 2002, vol. 84, pp. 308-319
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:5026
Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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  1. Milgrom, Paul & Shannon, Chris, 1994. "Monotone Comparative Statics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 157-80, January.
  2. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
  3. Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & McBride, William D., 2000. "Genetically Engineered Crops For Pest Management In U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural Economics Reports 33931, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  4. Lapan, Harvey E. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 2000. "Incomplete Adoption of a Superior Innovation," Staff General Research Papers 1738, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2001. "Response to an Asymmetric Demand for Attributes: An Application to the Market for Genetically Modified Crops," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 01-mwp5, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  6. Babcock, Bruce A., 1990. "Value of Weather Information in Market Equilibrium (The)," Staff General Research Papers 10592, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Susan Athey & Jonathan Levin, 1998. "The Value of Information In Monotone Decision Problems," Working papers 98-24, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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