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Un modelo SVAR para la economía Boliviana

  • Martín Palmero Pantoja

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    Bolivia es una economía pequeña, abierta, parcialmente dolarizada y con un esquema de tipo de cambio muy cercano a fijo. Bajo estas características la teoría económica keynesiana sustentaría que la política fiscal debería tener un efecto más importante, como instrumento de estabilización económica, en comparación con la política monetaria y que, al ser un país pequeño los choques externos debieran ser relevantes. En este trabajo se analiza cómo se propagan los shocks fiscales, monetarios y externos en la economía boliviana utilizando un modelo SVAR. Los resultados más relevantes indican que, efectivamente los shocks fiscales tienen mayor efecto sobre la actividad económica que los monetarios y, los choques externos, medidos como cambios en los precios de la energía, repercuten de manera importante sobre la inflación y en menor medida en el crecimiento

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    File URL: http://www.upb.edu/RePEc/iad/wpaper/0514.pdf
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    Paper provided by Universidad Privada Boliviana in its series Investigación & Desarrollo with number 0514.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: Jan 2014
    Date of revision: Jan 2014
    Publication status: Published in Investigación & Desarrollo, March 2014, pages 82-99
    Handle: RePEc:iad:wpaper:0514
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.upb.edu/node/235
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    1. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
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    5. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    6. Luis Carlos Jemio & Manfred Wiebelt, 2002. "Macroeconomic Impacts of External Shocks and Anti-Shock Policies in Bolivia: A CGE Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1100, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    7. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, 09.
    9. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
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