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Macroeconomic impacts of external shocks and anti-shock policies in Bolivia: a CGE analysis

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  • Jemio M., Luis Carlos
  • Wiebelt, Manfred

Abstract

Bolivia's mid-term growth prospects are promising but these prospects could be lost, due to social unrest and political instability, if the country does not solve its short-term economic problems, resulting from both external shocks and internal factors. Against this background, this paper analyzes whether the Bolivian economy has any possibility at all to apply anti-shock policies in order to cushion the short-term effects of shocks. For this purpose, a recursive-dynamic CGE model is described which includes both real and financial sectors and which captures the particular features that characterize the functioning of the Bolivian economy. The model is then used to evaluate the effects of external shocks and to test the effectiveness of different policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jemio M., Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2002. "Macroeconomic impacts of external shocks and anti-shock policies in Bolivia: a CGE analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1100, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:idb:brikps:publication-detail,7101.html?id=68558 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Wiebelt, Manfred, 1996. "Anpassung und Einkommensverteilung in Entwicklungsländern: Eine angewandte allgemeine Gleichgewichtsanalyse für Malaysia," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 890, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    4. Government of Bolivia & Gobierno de Bolivia, 2001. "Bolivia: Poverty Reduction Strategy," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 80367, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Nina, Osvaldo, 2000. "The HIPC Initiative In Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 4/2000, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    6. Schweickert, Rainer, 2001. "Macroeconomic constraints on economic development and poverty reduction: the case of Bolivia," Kiel Working Papers 1060, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Faris, Robert, 2001. "Reducing Volatility due to Natural Gas Exports: Is the Answer a Stabilization Fund?," Documentos de trabajo 11/2001, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    8. Jemio M., Luis Carlos, 2001. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Bolivia since the 1970s: Adjustment to What, By Whom, and How? Analytical Insights from a SAM Model," Kiel Working Papers 1031, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Meza, Mauricio, 2001. "The Natural Gas Sector in Bolivia: An Overview," Documentos de trabajo 1/2001, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martín Palmero Pantoja, 2014. "Un modelo SVAR para la economía Boliviana," Investigación & Desarrollo 0514, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Jan 2014.
    2. Michael FEIL, 2010. "Forecasting Medium-Term Distributional Effects of the Economic Crisis: A CGE-Microsimulation Approach," EcoMod2010 259600056, EcoMod.
    3. Mora Barrenechea, Mauricio, 2020. "Time-varying effects of commodities prices in the Bolivian economy," MPRA Paper 104706, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE model; Bolivia; macroeconomic adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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