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Dynamical systems forced by shot noise as a new paradigm in the interest rate modeling

  • Alexander L. Baranovski
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    In this paper we give a generalized model of the interest rates term structure including Nelson-Siegel and Svensson structure. For that we introduce a continuous m-factor exponential-polynomial form of forward interest rates and demonstrate its considerably better performance in a fitting of the zero-coupon curves in comparison with the well known Nelson-Siegel and Svensson ones. In the sequel we transform the model into a dynamic model for interest rates by designing a switching dynamical system of the considerably reduced dimension n

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    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2010-037.pdf
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    Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2010-037.

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    Length: 39 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-037
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    1. Johanna Kappus & Markus Reiß, 2011. "Estimation of the characteristics of a Lévy process observed at arbitrary frequency," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-027, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Nikolaus Hautsch & Fuyu Yang, 2010. "Bayesian Inference in a Stochastic Volatility Nelson-Siegel Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    3. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter E. & Veredas, David, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise, and informational volatility," CFR Working Papers 11-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Vladimir Panov, 2010. "Non-Gaussian Component Analysis: New Ideas, New Proofs, New Applications," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-026, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Fiocco Raffaele, 2013. "The Optimal Institutional Design of Vertically Related Markets with Unknown Upstream Costs," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 183-210, June.
    6. Christian Basteck & Tijmen R. Daniëls & Frank Heinemann, 2010. "Characterising Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    7. Ulrich Horst & Santiago Moreno-Bromberg, 2011. "Efficiency and Equilibria in Games of Optimal Derivative Design," Papers 1107.0839, arXiv.org.
    8. Mengmeng Guo & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2010. "Adaptive Interest Rate Modelling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-029, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    9. Abbassi, Puriya & Nautz, Dieter, 2010. "Monetary transmission right from the start: The (dis)connection netween the money market and the ECB's main refinancing rates," Discussion Papers 2010/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    10. Ulrich Horst & Felix Naujokat, 2010. "Illiquidity and Derivative Valuation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    11. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Yarema Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2010. "Uniform confidence bands for pricing kernels," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Juliane Scheffel, 2010. "Honey, I’ll Be Working Late Tonight. The Effect of Individual Work Routines on Leisure Time Synchronization of Couples," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    13. Fang Yao, 2010. "Aggregate Hazard Function in Price-Setting: A Bayesian Analysis Using Macro Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    14. Schmidt, Sandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2010. "Why do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-045, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    15. Ulrich Horst & Traian A. Pirvu & Gonçalo Dos Reis, 2010. "On Securitization, Market Completion and Equilibrium Risk Transfer," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-010, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    16. Maria Grith & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Melanie Schienle, 2010. "Nonparametric Estimation of Risk-Neutral Densities," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-021, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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