IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hum/wpaper/sfb649dp2010-037.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamical systems forced by shot noise as a new paradigm in the interest rate modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander L. Baranovski

Abstract

In this paper we give a generalized model of the interest rates term structure including Nelson-Siegel and Svensson structure. For that we introduce a continuous m-factor exponential-polynomial form of forward interest rates and demonstrate its considerably better performance in a fitting of the zero-coupon curves in comparison with the well known Nelson-Siegel and Svensson ones. In the sequel we transform the model into a dynamic model for interest rates by designing a switching dynamical system of the considerably reduced dimension n

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander L. Baranovski, 2010. "Dynamical systems forced by shot noise as a new paradigm in the interest rate modeling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-037
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2010-037.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juliane Scheffel, 2010. "Honey, I’ll Be Working Late Tonight. The Effect of Individual Work Routines on Leisure Time Synchronization of Couples," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Maria Grith & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Melanie Schienle, 2010. "Nonparametric Estimation of Risk-Neutral Densities," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-021, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    3. Fasten, Erik R. & Hofmann, Dirk, 2010. "Two-sided Certification: The market for Rating Agencies," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 338, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    4. Johanna Kappus & Markus Reiß, 2010. "Estimation of the characteristics of a Lévy process observed at arbitrary frequency," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Ulrich Horst & Traian A. Pirvu & Gonçalo Dos Reis, 2010. "On Securitization, Market Completion and Equilibrium Risk Transfer," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-010, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. Schmidt, Sandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2010. "Why do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-045, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Carolin Hecht & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Sociodemographic, Economic, and Psychological Drivers of the Demand for Life Insurance: Evidence from the German Retirement Income Act," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-034, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Fang Yao, 2010. "Aggregate Hazard Function in Price-Setting: A Bayesian Analysis Using Macro Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    9. Ulrich Horst & Santiago Moreno-Bromberg, 2010. "Efficiency and Equilibria in Games of Optimal Derivative Design," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-035, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Veredas, David, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise, and informational volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2733-2746, October.
    11. Ostap Okhrin, 2010. "Fitting high-dimensional Copulae to Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Ya’acov Ritov & Song Song, 2010. "Partial Linear Quantile Regression and Bootstrap Confidence Bands," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-002, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    13. Ulrich Horst & Felix Naujokat, 2008. "Illiquidity and Derivative Valuation," Papers 0901.0091, arXiv.org.
    14. Vladimir Panov, 2010. "Non-Gaussian Component Analysis: New Ideas, New Proofs, New Applications," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-026, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    15. Fiocco Raffaele, 2013. "The Optimal Institutional Design of Vertically Related Markets with Unknown Upstream Costs," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 183-210, June.
    16. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Yarema Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2015. "Uniform Confidence Bands for Pricing Kernels," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 376-413.
    17. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Yang, Fuyu, 2012. "Bayesian inference in a Stochastic Volatility Nelson–Siegel model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3774-3792.
    18. Basteck, Christian & Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Heinemann, Frank, 2013. "Characterising equilibrium selection in global games with strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2620-2637.
    19. Christine Binzel & Dietmar Fehr, 2010. "Social Relationships and Trust," Working Papers 542, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2010.
    20. Puriya Abbassi & Dieter Nautz, 2010. "Monetary Transmission Right from the Start: The (Dis)Connection Between the Money Market and the ECB’s Main Refinancing Rates," Working Papers 1011, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 15 Jul 2010.
    21. Erik R. Fasten & Dirk Hofmann, 2010. "Two-sided Certification: The market for Rating Agencies," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    22. Mengmeng Guo & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2010. "Adaptive Interest Rate Modelling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-029, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicole Wiebach & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2010. "Context Effects as Customer Reaction on Delisting of Brands," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Agnieszka Janek & Tino Kluge & Rafal Weron & Uwe Wystup, 2010. "FX Smile in the Heston Model," HSC Research Reports HSC/10/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    3. Nikolaus Hautsch & Peter Malec & Melanie Schienle, 2014. "Capturing the Zero: A New Class of Zero-Augmented Distributions and Multiplicative Error Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 89-121.
    4. Basteck, Christian & Daniëls, Tijmen R., 2011. "Every symmetric 3×3 global game of strategic complementarities has noise-independent selection," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 749-754.
    5. Franziska Schulze, 2010. "Spatial Dependencies in German Matching Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. Szymon Borak & Adam Misiorek & Rafał Weron, 2010. "Models for Heavy-tailed Asset Returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    7. Enno Mammen & Christoph Rothe & Melanie Schienle, 2010. "Nonparametric Regression with Nonparametrically Generated Covariates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2010. "Executive Compensation Regulation and the Dynamics of the Pay-Performance Sensitivity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    9. Vladimir Panov, 2010. "Estimation of the signal subspace without estimation of the inverse covariance matrix," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-050, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Maria Grith & Volker Krätschmer, 2010. "Parametric estimation of risk neutral density functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Basteck, Christian & Daniëls, Tijmen R., 2011. "Every symmetric 3×3 global game of strategic complementarities has noise-independent selection," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 749-754.
    2. Enno Mammen & Christoph Rothe & Melanie Schienle, 2010. "Nonparametric Regression with Nonparametrically Generated Covariates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    3. Nikolaus Hautsch & Peter Malec & Melanie Schienle, 2014. "Capturing the Zero: A New Class of Zero-Augmented Distributions and Multiplicative Error Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 89-121.
    4. Vladimir Panov, 2010. "Estimation of the signal subspace without estimation of the inverse covariance matrix," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-050, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Szymon Borak & Adam Misiorek & Rafał Weron, 2010. "Models for Heavy-tailed Asset Returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. Franziska Schulze, 2010. "Spatial Dependencies in German Matching Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    7. Ulrich Horst & Santiago Moreno-Bromberg, 2010. "Efficiency and Equilibria in Games of Optimal Derivative Design," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-035, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Janek, Agnieszka & Kluge, Tino & Weron, Rafal & Wystup, Uwe, 2010. "FX Smile in the Heston Model," MPRA Paper 25491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2010. "Executive Compensation Regulation and the Dynamics of the Pay-Performance Sensitivity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Maria Grith & Volker Krätschmer, 2010. "Parametric estimation of risk neutral density functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    11. Nicole Wiebach & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2010. "Context Effects as Customer Reaction on Delisting of Brands," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Carolin Hecht & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Sociodemographic, Economic, and Psychological Drivers of the Demand for Life Insurance: Evidence from the German Retirement Income Act," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-034, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    13. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Rouslan Moro & Linda Hoffmann, 2010. "Learning Machines Supporting Bankruptcy Prediction," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    14. Burnecki, Krzysztof & Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "Building Loss Models," MPRA Paper 25492, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Konrad Stahl & Roland Strausz, 2017. "Certification and Market Transparency," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(4), pages 1842-1868.
    16. Audrino, Francesco & Meier, Pirmin, 2012. "Empirical pricing kernel estimation using a functional gradient descent algorithm based on splines," Economics Working Paper Series 1210, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    17. Michail Anthropelos, 2012. "The Effect of Market Power on Risk-Sharing," Papers 1206.0384, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    18. Dong Yan & Christian A. Vossler & Scott M. Gilpatric, 2020. "Product quality and third-party certification in potential lemons markets," Working Papers 2020-04, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics.
    19. Eric J. Hoffmann & Tarun Sabarwal, 2019. "Equilibrium existence in global games with general payoff structures," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 7(1), pages 105-115, May.
    20. Reiß, Markus, 2013. "Testing the characteristics of a Lévy process," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2808-2828.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward interest rates; shot noise processes; switching dynamical systems; chaotic Brownian subordination; chaotic maps;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RDC-Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.