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Who Leads Financial Markets?

  • Enzo Weber

The present paper embarks on an analysis of interactions between the US and Euroland in the capital, foreign exchange, money and stock markets from 1994 until 2006. Considering influences on financial market volatility, the estimations are carried out in multivariate EGARCH models using structural residuals. This approach consequently allows identifying the contemporaneous effects between the daily variables. Structural VARs or VECMs can therefore give answers to the question of financial markets leadership: Generally speaking, the US effects on Europe still dominate, but the special econometric methodology is able to uncover otherwise neglected effects in the reverse direction.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2007-015.pdf
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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2007-015.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-015
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  1. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 0200, European Central Bank.
  2. Enzo Weber, 2007. "What Happened to the Transatlantic Capital Market Relations?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-014, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt9823140f, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  4. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December.
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  6. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Spillovers across U.S. financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission," NBER Working Papers 11166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October.
  10. Dwyer, Gerald Jr. & Wallace, Myles S., 1992. "Cointegration and market efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 318-327, August.
  11. Lee, Keun Yeong, 2006. "The contemporaneous interactions between the U.S., Japan, and Hong Kong stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 21-27, January.
  12. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 407, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Enzo Weber, 2010. "Volatility and causality in Asia Pacific financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1269-1292.
  14. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  15. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Comte, F. & Lieberman, O., 2003. "Asymptotic theory for multivariate GARCH processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 61-84, January.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  18. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 0529, European Central Bank.
  19. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  20. Baur, Dirk & Jung, Robert C., 2006. "Return and volatility linkages between the US and the German stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 598-613, June.
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