Prior Divergence: Do Researchers and Participants Share the Same Prior Probability Distributions?
Do participants bring their own priors to an experiment? If so, do they share the same priors as the researchers who design the experiment? In this article, we examine the extent to which self-generated priors conform to experimenters’ expectations by explicitly asking participants to indicate their own priors in estimating the probability of a variety of events. We find in Study 1 that despite being instructed to follow a uniform distribution, participants appear to have used their own priors, which deviated from the given instructions. Using subjects’ own priors allows us to account better for their responses rather than merely to test the accuracy of their estimates. Implications for the study of judgment and decision making are discussed.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Cognitive Science 35 (2011) 744–762|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ratio.huji.ac.il/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Teck-Hua Ho & Keith Weigelt, 1996. "Task Complexity, Equilibrium Selection, and Learning: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(5), pages 659-679, May.
- Brit Grosskopf & Yoella Bereby-Meyer & Max Bazerman, 2007. "On the Robustness of the Winnerâ€™s Curse Phenomenon," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 389-418, December.
- Reinhard Selten & Klaus Abbink & Ricarda Cox, 2005.
"Learning Direction Theory and the Winnerâ€™s Curse,"
Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 5-20, April.
- Ball, Sheryl B. & Bazerman, Max H. & Carroll, John S., 1991. "An evaluation of learning in the bilateral winner's curse," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-22, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:huj:dispap:dp587. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilan Nehama)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.