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Negative Returns: U.S. Military Policy and Anti-American Terrorism

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  • Eugen Dimant
  • Tim Krieger
  • Daniel Meierrieks

Abstract

We investigate the effect of U.S. military aid and U.S. troop deployments on anti-American terrorism, using a sample of 106 countries between 1986 and 2011. We find that greater military commitment leads to more anti-American terrorism. We study the underlying mechanisms using a mediation analysis and show that both U.S. military aid and troop deployments in foreign countries do not improve local state capacity. Rather, we find that more military aid (but not troop deployments) is linked to poorer political-institutional outcomes in aid-receiving countries, explaining the positive association between U.S. military aid and anti-American terrorism. Our findings suggest that U.S. military policy does not make the United States safer from transnational terrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugen Dimant & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2017. "Negative Returns: U.S. Military Policy and Anti-American Terrorism," Economics Working Papers 17106, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hoo:wpaper:17106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric Neumayer & Thomas Plümper, 2011. "Foreign terror on Americans," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(1), pages 3-17, January.
    2. Imai, Kosuke & Keele, Luke & Tingley, Dustin & Yamamoto, Teppei, 2011. "Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(4), pages 765-789, November.
    3. Andrew Boutton & David B. Carter, 2014. "Fair-Weather Allies? Terrorism and the Allocation of US Foreign Aid," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 58(7), pages 1144-1173, October.
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    5. Oeindrila Dube & Suresh Naidu, 2010. "Bases, Bullets, and Ballots: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia," Working Papers 197, Center for Global Development.
    6. Thomas Gries & Daniel Meierrieks & Margarete Redlin, 2015. "Oppressive governments, dependence on the USA, and anti-American terrorism," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 83-103.
    7. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2015. "The rise of capitalism and the roots of anti-American terrorism," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 52(1), pages 46-61, January.
    8. Tony Addison & Mansoob Murshed, 2005. "Transnational terrorism as a spillover of domestic disputes in other countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 69-82.
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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General

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