Market Expectation of Appreciation of the Renminbi
This paper proposes a path-dependent approach for estimating maximum appreciations of the renminbi expected by the market based on first-passage-time distributions. Using market data of the renminbi spot exchange rates, non-deliverable forward rates and currency option prices from 21 July 2005 (the reform of the exchange rate regime) to 28 February 2008 for model parameters, the maximum appreciations of the renminbi estimated under the proposed approach show that the market expected another large movement of the exchange rate during the 14 months after the reform. Subsequently, the few occasions of appreciations beyond the expected maximums coincided with trade-related issues and speculation that greater momentum of appreciation would be allowed by the authorities. The PBoC¡¦s measures were however largely incorporated into the derivatives¡¦ prices. The proposed approach can be used to gauge the range of appreciations of the renminbi anticipated in the market and to identify any exchange rate movements beyond market expectations.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 55th Floor, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central|
Web page: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- José B. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "ERM bandwidths for EMU and after: evidence from foreign exchange options," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 53-89, 04.
- Ronald McKinnon, 2006.
"China'S Exchange Rate Appreciation In The Light Of The Earlier Japanese Experience,"
Pacific Economic Review,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 287-298, October.
- McKinnon, Ronald, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate Appreciation in the Light of the Earlier Japanese Experience," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-35, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Market Expectations in the UK before and after the ERM Crisis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(265), pages 1-18, February.
- Söderlind, Paul, 1997. "Market Expectations in the UK Before and After the ERM Crisis," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 210, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Sep 1998.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simon Chan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.