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Asymptotic Inference for Common Factor Models in the Presence of Jumps

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  • YAMAMOTO, Yohei

Abstract

Financial and macroeconomic time-series data often exhibit infrequent but large jumps. Such jumps may be considered as outliers that are independent of the underlying data-generating processes and contaminate inferences on their model. In this study, we investigate the effects of such jumps on asymptotic inference for large-dimensional common factor models. We first derive the upper bound of jump magnitudes with which the standard asymptotic inference goes through. Second, we propose a jump-correction method based on a series-by-series outlier detection algorithm without accounting for the factor structure. This method gains standard asymptotic normality for the factor model unless outliers occur at common dates. Finally, we propose a test to investigate whether the jumps at a common date are independent outliers or are of factors. A Monte Carlo experiment confirms that the proposed jump-correction method retrieves good finite sample properties. The proposed test shows good size and power. Two small empirical applications illustrate usefulness of the proposed methods.

Suggested Citation

  • YAMAMOTO, Yohei, 2016. "Asymptotic Inference for Common Factor Models in the Presence of Jumps," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-4, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-4
    Note: July 2, 2015; Reviced May 17, 2016
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    Cited by:

    1. Yohei Yamamoto, 2012. "Bootstrap Inference for Impulse Response Functions in Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-249, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    outliers; large-dimensional factor models; principal components; jumps; common jumps;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

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